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Extreme Weather (incl. Wildfires) (64 Papers)

Attribution Region SubCategory Year Cite As DOI Key Quote
Warming California Fires2019(Williams et al., 2019) 1972-2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area...Based on a regression analysis, the vast majority of the observed increase in summer forest-fire extent since 1972 is accounted for by observed significant increases in warm-season vapor-pressure deficit (caused by warming)
Warming United States Hurricanes2019(Grinsted et al., 2019) data reveal an emergent positive trend in damage, which we attribute to a detectable change in extreme storms due to global warming
Warming United States Heat Waves2007(Medina-Ramon and Schwartz, 2007) findings suggest that increases in heat-related mortality due to global warming are unlikely to be compensated for by decreases in cold-related mortality and that population acclimatisation to heat is still incomplete.
Warming United States Fires2006(Westerling et al., 2006) show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons...strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.
Warming Global Hurricanes2006(Hoyos et al., 2006) results show that the trend of increasing numbers of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the period 1970-2004 is directly linked to the trend in sea-surface temperature
Anthropogenic Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2006(Mann and Emanuel, 2006) a formal statistical analysis to separate the estimated influences of anthropogenic climate change from possible natural cyclical influences, this article presents results indicating that anthropogenic factors are likely responsible for long-term trends in tropical Atlantic warmth and tropical cyclone activity
Temporal Global Hurricanes2005(Webster et al., 2005) in the strongest categories (4 + 5) have almost doubled in number (50 per pentad in the 1970s to near 90 per pentad during the past decade) and in proportion (from around 20% to around 35% during the same period)...We conclude that global data indicate a 30-year trend toward more frequent and intense hurricanes, corroborated by the results of the recent regional assessment
Warming Global Hurricanes2005(Emanuel, 2005) define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s...I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature
Warming Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2008(Elsner et al., 2008) tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere...We find significant upward trends for wind speed quantiles above the 70th percentile, with trends as high as 0.3 +/- 0.09 m s-1 yr-1 (s.e.) for the strongest cyclones.
Temporal Global Extratropical Cyclones2002(Paciorek et al., 2002) averages for large sectors of the hemisphere provide some evidence for increases in storm activity and forcing, but results vary by region and decade. The number of cyclones does not appear to be increasing, but there is evidence for an increase in intense cyclones.
Temporal Alaska Storms Other2012(Stegall and Zhang, 2012) frequency of extreme wind events (speed above the 95th percentile winds) shows an increasing trend in all months, with the greatest increase occurring in October, showing 8% more extreme wind events in 2009 comparing to 1979... The significant retreat of sea ice in the study area during the most recent decade (e.g., Comiso et al. 2008; Polyakov et al. 2012) most likely contributes to the strong increasing trend in both wind speeds and frequency of extreme wind events.
Temporal Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2008(Kossin, 2008) trends in the annual distribution of North Atlantic tropical storm formation...during the period 1851-2007...A consistent signal emerged that suggests the season has become longer as the earliest formation dates of the season have become earlier and the latest dates have become later.
Temporal United States Storms Other2009(Changnon, 2009) nation's top ten loss events during 1950-2006 reveal a notable temporal increase with most losses in the 1992-2006 period. Causes for the increases could be an increasing frequency of very unstable atmospheric conditions leading to bigger, longer lasting storms, and/or a greatly expanded urban society that has become increasingly vulnerable to hailstorms.
Anthropogenic Canada Fires2004(Gillett et al., 2004) has been a pronounced upward trend in area burned by wildland fires in Canada over the past three decades...We further show that human-induced climate change has had a detectable influence on the area burned by forest fire in Canada over recent decades...mean temperature is highly correlated with total area burned in Canada (r = 0.77).
Anthropogenic United States Heat Waves2012(Duffy and Tebaldi, 2012) of observations and climate model results shows that previously rare (5th percentile) summertime average temperatures are presently occurring with greatly increased frequency in some regions of the 48 contiguous United States...this result is more consistent with the consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations than with the effects of natural climate variability
Anthropogenic India Heat Waves2019(Vittal et al., 2019) heat waves over India have been increasing in frequency and severity during recent decades, and are responsible for thousands of deaths...The conditions in the Atlantic that drove these heat waves were exacerbated by greenhouse gas emissions rather than natural forcing.
Warming United States Fires2016(Westerling, 2016) percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades...Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt
Temporal Western North Pacific Hurricanes2018(Tu et al., 2018) destructive potential of TCs has a considerable increasing trend from 1998 to 2016 (the P2 period), mainly contributed by the average intensity of TCs
Temporal South America Heat Waves2016(Ceccherini et al. 2016) study describes the extreme temperature regime of heat waves and cold waves across South America over recent years (1980-2014)...Results indicate an increase in intensity and in frequency of heat waves, especially in the last 10 years.
Temporal Europe Heat Waves2014(Fischer and Knutti 2014) two gridded data sets, HadEX2 and GHCNDEX, consistently show an intensification of hot extremes ...over large parts of Europe, parts of northern Asia (around Mongolia) by 2-3K in the period 1960-2010...More than a third of the land fraction experienced trends that are larger than 1 K over the period 1960-2010.
Temporal Global Heat Waves2015(Mishra et al. 2015; ) observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973-2012.
Warming Global Heat Waves2013(Coumou et al., 2013), the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming...Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia.
Warming Siberia Fires2016(Ponomarev et al., 2016) number and burned area temporal dynamics within all of Siberia and along a south-north transect in central Siberia (45 73 N) were studied...Both the number of forest fires and the size of the burned area increased during recent decades (p < 0.05). Significant correlations were found between forest fires, burned areas and air temperature (r = 0.5) and drought index.
Temporal Canada Fires2018(Hanes et al., 2018) paper presents fire-regime trends [in Canada]...for two time periods, 1959-2015 and 1980-2015...results suggest that large fires have been getting larger over the last 57 years and that the fire season has been starting approximately one week earlier and ending one week later...Overall, Canadian forests appear to have been engaged in a trajectory towards more active fire regimes over the last half century.
Temporal Global Fires2015(Jolly et al., 2015) 1979 to 2013...we show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km^2 (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length...and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period.
Anthropogenic United States Fires2016(Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016) estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence.
Anthropogenic Australia Fires2018(Dowdy, 2018) weather conditions are examined throughout Australia from gridded daily data from 1950 to 2016...there is a clear trend toward more dangerous conditions during spring and summer in southern Australia, including increased frequency and magnitude of extremes, as well as indicating an earlier start to the fire season. Changes in fire weather conditions are attributable at least in part to anthropogenic climate change, including in relation to increasing temperatures.
Warming Greece Fires2013(Koutsias et al., 2013) fire records and meteorological observations, spanning more than 1 century (1894-2010), were gathered and assembled in a database... fire occurrence, expressed as the annual number of fires and total burnt area, was strongly correlated with the mean maximum and the absolute maximum air temperature
Temporal Global Heat Waves2014(Russo et al., 2014) show that the percentage of global area affected by heat waves has increased in recent decades...In the 11 years between 2002 and 2012, the percentage of global area affected by moderate (HWMI >=2), severe (HWMI >=3), and extreme (HWMI >=4) heat waves was threefold greater than in the previous periods (1980-1990 and 1991-2001)
Temporal Eastern Mediterranean Heat Waves2019(Founda et al., 2019) historical air temperature data at a number of stations at the Eastern Mediterranean...observational data reveals significant changes in the seasonality of hot extremes and specifically lengthening of their period, which in some cases exceeds 10 days per decade
Anthropogenic Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2019(Bhatia et al., 2019), we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982-2009...our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing.
Anthropogenic United States Thunderstorms2013(Sander et al., 2013) normalized economic and insured losses in the United States east of the Rockies from the period 1970-2009 (March-September) exhibit higher peaks and greater variability in the last two decades than in the preceding two decades...from these findings, we conclude that it is predominantly the change in hazard over time--rather than the change in destructible wealth or vulnerability--that has driven up normalized losses...a high probability is assigned to climatic variations primarily driving the changes in normalized losses since was demonstrated that the findings presented are consistent with the expected effects of anthropogenic climate change.
Temporal United States Heat Waves2020(Tavakol et al., 2020) the period 1948-2017 for the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), which covers approximately 41% of the Contiguous United States...more frequent and longer heat waves were observed in western and north-western MRB...a significant increase happened starting in 1994 in the percentage of area with a HW longer than 10 consecutive days.
Temporal China Hurricanes2020(Liu et al., 2020) study investigates the trend in destructive potential of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in terms of power dissipation index (PDI) over mainland China in the period of 1980-2018. Results show that both the accumulated PDI and averaged PDI after landfall show significant increasing trends.
Anthropogenic China Heat Waves2020(Li et al., 2020) show that summer mean WBGT has increased almost everywhere across China since 1961 due to human-induced climate change. Consequently, hot summers as measured by summer mean WBGT are becoming more frequent and more conducive to heat stress...these hot WBGT summers have become more than 140 times as likely in Eastern China in the present decade 2010s compared to a 1961-1990 baseline period.
Anthropogenic Australia Fires2019(Harris and Lucas, 2019) fire weather shows spatiotemporal variability on interannual and multi-decadal time scales...on longer time scales (45 years), linear trends are upward at most stations...we propose that anthropogenic climate change is the primary driver of the trend, through both higher mean temperatures and potentially through associated shifts in large-scale rainfall patterns.
Temporal United States Fires2014(Dennison et al., 2014) 1984-2011...over the western U.S. and in a majority of ecoregions, we found significant, increasing trends in the number of large fires and/or total large fire area per year. Trends were most significant for southern and mountain ecoregions, coinciding with trends toward increased drought severity. For all ecoregions combined, the number of large fires increased at a rate of seven fires per year, while total fire area increased at a rate of 355 km2 per year.
Temporal United States Hurricanes2010(Kunkel et al., 2010) time series for 935 long?term U.S. climate stations were analyzed to identify daily extreme events associated with tropical cyclones...during 1994-2008, the number of TC?associated events was more than double the long?term average while the total annual national number of events was about 25% above the long?term (1895-2008) average.
Temporal United States Heat Waves2020(Keelings and Moradkhani, 2020) the United States during 1981-2018... the spatiotemporal evolution of combined heat wave characteristics shows considerable increases during this period and indicates a substantial increase in heat wave hazard across the United States...extreme heat events have become more likely through the record as evidenced by the statistically significant (at the 0.05 significance level) upward trend in AHSCI (9.5 decade -1) for the continental United States.
Temporal China Heat Waves2020(Luo et al., 2020) observational and reanalysis datasets, here we investigate the heatwave behaviors in arid northwest China (ANC) during 1961?2014...over the long-term period, the heatwave in ANC exhibits significant intensifying trends in terms of increasing frequency (0.40 events decade?1), prolonging duration (1.67 days decade?1), and strengthening amplitude (0.32 C decade?1)
Warming Canada Fires2006(Kasischke & Turetsky, 2006) the early 1960s, increases in the number of individual fire events and in the size of fires both contributed to more frequent occurrence of large fire years across the NABR...these observations are consistent with predictions that climate warming will result in longer fire seasons.
Warming Global Hurricanes2020(Kossin et al., 2020) the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979-2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities ... Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade
Warming Global Hurricanes2020(Elsner, 2020) strongest tropical cyclones have continued to get stronger...Here I show that this is the case with increases in the upper quantile intensities of global tropical cyclones amounting to between 3.5 and 4.5% in the period 2007-2019 relative to the earlier base period (1981-2006)
Warming Global Heat Waves2020(Raymond et al., 2020) comprehensive evaluation of weather station data shows that some coastal subtropical locations have already reported a TW of 35 C and that extreme humid heat overall has more than doubled in frequency since 1979
Warming Global Heat Waves2020(Li et al., 2020) historical ~1 C of global-mean surface air temperature increase above preindustrial levels has already increased the population annually exposed to at least one day with wet bulb globe temperature exceeding 33 C (the reference safety value for humans at rest per the ISO-7243 standard) from 97 million to 275 million.
Temporal Iran Heat Waves2020(Fathian et al., 2020) temperature and precipitation data of 76 synoptic stations were selected for trend analysis throughout Iran during the period 1981-2010...the results of 11 extreme temperature-related indices showed, in general, warm indices such as the number of warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p), and warm spell duration (WSDI) had an increasing trend
Temporal United States Heat Waves1998(Gaffen & Ross, 1998) we show that the frequency of extreme heat-stress events in the United States, caused by extremely hot and humid days as well as by heatwaves lasting for several days, has increased over the period from 1949 to 1995.
Warming Global Heat Waves2017(Diffenbaugh et al., 2017) find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area...79% of the observed area exhibits a statistically significant trend in peak summer monthly temperature.
Anthropogenic Global Heat Waves2016(Knutson & Ploshay, 2016) a heat stress metric we use a simplified wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index...our analysis suggests that there has been a detectable anthropogenic increase in mean summertime heat stress since 1973, both globally and in most land regions analyzed.
Temporal United States Heat Waves2012(Smith et al., 2012) the period 1979?2011 across the Continental United States...positive trends (increases in number of heat wave days per year) were greatest in the Southeast and Great Plains regions, where more than 12% of the land area experienced significant increases in the number of heat wave days per year for the majority of heat wave indices.
Temporal Australia Fires2012(Clarke et al., 2012) data set of observed fire weather in Australia from 1973?2010 is analysed for trends using the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI)...the multi?station mean shows that on average across Australia, there has been an increase in annual cumulative FFDI since 1973 of 212 points per decade.
Anthropogenic Global Hurricanes2019(Knutson et al., 2019) balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to...increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s, increase in global proportion of TCs reaching category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades.
Warming United States Fires2020(Goss et al., 2020) show that state-wide increases in autumn temperature (~1 ?C) and decreases in autumn precipitation (~30%) over the past four decades have contributed to increases in aggregate fire weather indices (+20%). As a result, the observed frequency of autumn days with extreme (95th percentile) fire weather ? which we show are preferentially associated with extreme autumn wildfires ? has more than doubled in California since the early 1980s.?
Warming Global Hurricanes2016(Xu et al., 2016) empirical relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the maximum potential intensification rate (MPIR) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic has been developed based on the best-track TC data and the observed SST during 1988-2014...results from this study show a nonlinear increasing trend of the MPIR with increasing SST.
Warming United States Hurricanes2015(Estrada et al., 2015) on records of geophysical data, we identify an upward trend in both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin as well as in the number of loss-generating tropical cyclone records in the United States that is consistent with the smoothed global average rise in surface air temperature...we identify an upward trend in economic losses between 1900 and 2005 that cannot be explained by commonly used socioeconomic variables.
Warming Global Hurricanes2015(Fraza & Elsner, 2015) climatic influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on intensification is examined for North Atlantic hurricanes by averaging hourly intensity increases from best-track data over the period 1986-2013...on average, mean intensification increases by 16% [(9, 20)% uncertainty interval] for every 1 C increase in mean SST.
Temporal Global Hurricanes2013(Kossin et al., 2013) create a more temporally consistent record of tropical cyclone intensity within the period trends deduced using quantile regression are shown. In the best track, the trend in the mean lifetime maximum intensity is about +2 m s?1 decade?1 and is statistically significant.
Warming Global Hurricanes2015(Kang & Elsner, 2015) calculate an average increase in global tropical cyclone intensity of 1.3 m s-1?over the past 30 years of ocean warming occurring at the expense of 6.1 tropical cyclones?worldwide.
Warming Global Hurricanes2012(Kishtawal et al., 2012) all the basins, the rate of Tropical Cyclone intensification from 64 kt to first peak of intensity maxima (global average value = 104 kt) was found to be positive...the trends indicate that the TCs now intensify from 64 kt to 104 kt nearly 9 hours earlier than they did 25 years back...increasing TC intensification may partly be attributed to the rate of ocean warming at different basins.
Warming Pacific Ocean Hurricanes2016(Mei & Xie, 2016) the past 37 years, typhoons that strike East and Southeast Asia have intensified by 12-15%, with the proportion of storms of categories 4 and 5 having doubled or even tripled...we find that the increased intensity of landfalling typhoons is due to strengthened intensification rates, which in turn are tied to locally enhanced ocean surface warming on the rim of East and Southeast Asia.
Temporal Pacific Ocean Hurricanes2012(Kang & Elsner, 2012) consensus of TC trends between the two agencies over the period is interpreted as fewer but stronger events since 1984, even with the lower power dissipation index (PDI) in the western North Pacific in recent years.
Warming Global Hurricanes2010(Menendez & Woodworth, 2010) sea level (MSL) has generally increased worldwide during the 20th century due to the thermal expansion of sea water, the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, and the hydrological exchanges between the land and the ocean...there has indeed been an increase in extreme high water levels worldwide since 1970...results show that the MSL rise is the major reason for the rise in extreme high water at most stations.
Temporal United States Tornadoes2016(Tippett et al., 2016) extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks...the estimated number of tornadoes in the 5-year most extreme outbreak roughly doubles from 40 in 1965 to nearly 80 in 2015.
Warming China Heat Waves2020(Xie et al., 2020) the 1960s, the frequencies of the mild, moderate, severe, and extreme heat waves in China have increased significantly with rates of 7.5, 4.3, 1.4, and 1.8 events per year, respectively.
Temporal Turkey Heat Waves2010(Kuglitsch et al., 2010) the 1960s, the mean heat wave intensity, heat wave length and heat wave number across the eastern Mediterranean region have increased by a factor of 7.6 +/- 1.3, 7.5 +/- 1.3 and 6.2 +/- 1.1, respectively.