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Health, Conflict and Poverty (33 Papers)

Shortlist Attribution Region SubCategory Year # Citations Cite As DOI Key Quote
Warming Czech Republic Tick-Based Diseases2012 15(Kriz et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1089/vbz.2011.0900This article presents major epidemiologic features of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in the Czech Republic...since the beginning of the 1990s, there has been a steep rise in incidence...These changes in incidence patterns appear to be linked with changes in climatic and meteorological conditions.
Warming Africa (East) Malaria2006 201(Pascual et al., 2006)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0508929103The incidence of malaria in the East African highlands has increased since the end of the 1970s...To assess the biological significance of this trend, we drive a dynamical model for the population dynamics of the mosquito vector with the temperature time series and the corresponding detrended versions...the observed temperature changes would be significantly amplified by the mosquito population dynamics with a difference in the biological response at least 1 order of magnitude larger than that in the environmental variable
Temporal Africa (South) Cholera2009 19(Paz, 2009)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-009-0264-7In light of this, a Poisson Regression Model has been used to analyze the possible association between the cholera rates in southeastern Africa and the annual variability of air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) at regional and hemispheric scales, for the period 1971-2006. The results showed a significant exponential increase of cholera rates in humans during the study period. In addition, it was found that the annual mean air temperature and SST at the local scale, as well as anomalies at hemispheric scales, had significant impact on the cholera incidence during the study period
Warming Global Cholera2012 83(Vezzulli et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1038/ismej.2011.89We showed that during the last half century, ubiquitous marine bacteria of the Vibrio genus, including Vibrio cholerae, increased in dominance...increased sea surface temperature explained 45% of the variance in Vibrio data, supporting the view that ocean warming is favouring the spread of vibrios and may be the cause of the globally increasing trend in their associated diseases.
Anthropogenic Africa (East) Malaria2010 72(Alonso et al., 2010)https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2010.2020We focus instead on the recent past (1970-2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa...These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region
Warming Global Economic Impacts2012 156(Dell et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.4.3.66Higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries...higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output...higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability
Warming North America Allergies2011 139(Ziska et al., 2011)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1014107108Here we report that duration of the ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) pollen season has been increasing in recent decades as a function of latitude in North America. Latitudinal effects on increasing season length were associated primarily with a delay in first frost of the fall season and lengthening of the frost free period. Overall, these data indicate a significant increase in the length of the ragweed pollen season by as much as 13-27 d at latitudes above ~44 N since 1995
Warming Africa (North) ZCL2013 35(Bounoua et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fijerph10083172This study describes empirical relationships between L. major ZCL incidence and surface climate indicators. It presents observational evidence from data in two sites that changes in climate in semi-arid pre-Saharan North Africa may be the initial catalyst of a trophic cascade that results in a 1-year delayed response in rodent and sand flies population density and an additional 1-year lag in ZCL-incidence.
Warming Africa (East) Cholera2011 39(Reyburn et al., 2011)https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0277A 1°C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases.
Anthropogenic Global Allergies2004 179(Beggs, 2004)https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2222.2004.0206...There is now considerable evidence to suggest that climate change will have, and has already had, impacts on aeroallergens
Warming Australia Salmonella2004 98(D'Souza, 2004)https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ede.0000101021.034...Log-linear models describing monthly salmonellosis notifications in terms of calendar time and monthly average temperatures were fitted over the period 1991 to 2001 for each city...The long-term trend showed an increase in salmonellosis notifications in each of the 5 cities. There was a positive association between monthly salmonellosis notifications and mean monthly temperature of the previous month in every city
Temporal Middle East Dust Storms2018 9(Namdari et al., 2018)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.11.01...Dust events in the Middle East are becoming more frequent and intense in recent years...Precipitation data suggest that long-term reductions in rainfall promoted lower soil moisture and vegetative cover, leading to more intense dust emissions.
Warming Africa Violence2014 13(Burke et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.3386/w20598Contemporaneous temperature has the largest average effect by far, with each 1 C increase toward warmer temperatures increasing the frequency of contemporaneous interpersonal conflict by 2.4% and of intergroup conflict by 11.3%
Warming Indonesia Violence2016 13(Caruso et al., 2016)https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0022343315616061Focusing on Indonesia over the period 1993-2003...Results show that an increase of the minimum temperature during the core month of the rice growing season, that is, December, determines an increase in violence stimulated by the reduction in future rice production per capita.
Warming Global Violence2013 435Top (Hsiang et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235367Our meta-analysis of studies that examine populations in the post-1950 era suggests that the magnitude of climate's influence on modern conflict is both substantial and highly statistically significant (P < 0.001). Each 1-SD change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall increases the frequency of interpersonal violence by 4% and intergroup conflict by 14% (median estimates).
Warming Africa (Sub-Saharan) Violence2017 5(Jun, 2017)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1941-0Our empirical results confirm effects of temperature on the incidence of civil conflict. The key findings are as follows: (i) between 1970 and 2012 in sub-Saharan Africa, a high temperature during maize growing season reduced the crop's yield, which in turn increased the incidence of civil conflict.
Warming Sudan Violence2014 18(Maystadt et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu033For North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009...a change in temperature anomalies of 1 standard deviation is found to increase the frequency of violent conflict by 32%...we find that temperature variations may have affected about one quarter (26%) of violent events in Sudan.
Warming Africa (Sub-Saharan) Violence2014 31(O'Loughlin et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411899111Our analysis supports a link between temperature extremes and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa between 1980 and 2012. We find that higher temperatures have the effect of increasing the level of observed conflict in a quasiexperimental research design.
Temporal Global Violence2016 88(Schleussner et al., 2016)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1601611113Based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980-2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities.
Temporal Africa (Sub-Saharan) Violence2014 42(von Uexkull, 2014)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.10.003Using novel high-resolution data on civil conflict events in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1989 to 2008... areas with rainfed croplands see an increased risk of civil conflict violence following drought. There is also some support for the proposition that areas experiencing sustained droughts have a higher risk of conflict
Warming Europe (Central) Hantavirus2009 44(Klempa, 2009)https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-0691.2009.0284...Elevated average temperatures in West-Central Europe have been associated with more frequent Puumala hantavirus outbreaks, through high seed production (mast year) and high bank vole densities
Warming Europe Tick-Based Diseases2008 34(Süss et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1708-8305.2007.0017...Recent climate change has improved the living conditions of ticks substantially. One of the consequences is an increased distribution of ticks and a rise of the TBD incidence rate.
Warming Germany Tick-Based Diseases2008 43(Dautel et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmm.2008.01.010This appears to be the first time that extended or even continuous winter activity of I. ricinus nymphs and adults has been demonstrated in Central Europe...I. ricinus now can be active during the whole winter, a time of the year when these ticks historically have been dormant when the weather is normal
Warming Czech Republic Tick-Based Diseases2008 27(Materna et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmm.2008.05.004Comparison with historical data revealed that the I. ricinus upper distribution limit shifted from the former 700-800 m limit at least up to 1100 m above sea level (a.s.l.) during the last two decades...The causes of tick expansion could be found when analysing long-term (1961-2005) climatic data from the Krkonoe Mts., which showed a systematic and significant rise of the mean annual air temperature by 1.4 C at 1000 m a.s.l.
Warming Europe Tick-Based Diseases2000 188(Lindgren et al., 2000)https://dx.doi.org/10.1289%2Fehp.00108119We examined whether a reported northward expansion of the geographic distribution limit of the disease-transmitting tick Ixodes ricinus and an increased tick density between the early 1980s and mid-1990s in Sweden was related to climatic changes...Our results indicate that the reported northern shift in the distribution limit of ticks is related to fewer days during the winter seasons with low minimum temperatures, i.e., below -12 degrees C
Warming Sweden Tick-Based Diseases2001 129(Lindgren and Gustafson, 2001)https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(00)05250-8The incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Sweden has substantially increased since the mid-1980s...The findings indicate that the increase in TBE incidence since the mid-1980s is related to the period's change towards milder winters and early arrival of spring.
Warming Europe (Central) Tick-Based Diseases2004 8(Zeman and Bene, 2004)https://doi.org/10.1016/s1433-1128(04)80008-1Statistical tests proved that the TBE ceiling has gradually moved upwards in the course of the last three decades. Although the dependence of TBE on temperature is not a direct one and various factors could be involved, an impact of climate warming on the vertical disease distribution in Central Europe is evident.
Warming Czech Republic Tick-Based Diseases2004 3(Daniel et al., 2004)https://doi.org/10.1016/s1433-1128(04)80009-3In 1993 the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) showed a sharp rise in Central Europe and has remained high since...Based on these data we conclude that the increased TBE incidence rates reported in 1993 and afterwards are attributable to a more abundant occurrence of I. ricinus ticks and that their higher abundance is due to modified climatic conditions in the last decade
Warming Greece Economic Impacts2020 1(Gratton et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02634-zTime series of meteorological parameters at ten Greek airports since 1955 indicated the level of climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean area...for airports where aeroplane maximum take-off mass is a performance limited function of runway length, and where minimum temperatures have increased and/or mean headwind components decreased, climate change has already had a marked impact on the economic activity in the airline industry
Anthropogenic Mediterranean Basin Leishmaniasis2018 10(Chalghaf et al., 2018)https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-018-3019-xDue to climate change, the geographical distribution of sand flies during the last decades has shifted northward from latitudes below 45 N in southern Europe to latitudes just above 50 N....in central Europe, some autochthone leishmaniasis cases are being recorded in regions traditionally regarded as leishmaniasis-free.
Temporal China Apparent Temperature20190(Li et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2019-010This paper demonstrates that the [apparent temperature] over China, as revealed by daily station- observed data, has generally increased faster than the [surface air temperature] during summertime in the past 50 years (1968-2017).
Temporal Africa (Sub-Saharan) Malaria20190(Carlson et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1101/673913We test for range shifts using a new comprehensive dataset of Anopheles occurrences in sub-Saharan Africa, with over 500,000 species-locality pair records spanning 1898 to 2016...We estimate range-shifting species gained 1.56 meters of elevation annually, and moved southward 6.28 km per year in their outer range limits, a full order of magnitude faster than some "rapid" shifts observed in the literature.
Temporal Africa (Sub-Saharan) Malaria20190(Carlson et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1101/673913We test for range shifts using a new comprehensive dataset of Anopheles occurrences in sub-Saharan Africa, with over 500,000 species-locality pair records spanning 1898 to 2016...we estimate range-shifting species gained 1.56 meters of elevation annually, and moved southward 6.28 km per year in their outer range limits, a full order of magnitude faster than some 'rapid' shifts observed in the literature.

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