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Hurricanes (31 Papers)

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Shortlist Attribution Region SubCategory Year # Citations Cite As DOI Key Quote
Warming Global Hurricanes2006 213Top (Hoyos et al., 2006)https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1123560The results show that the trend of increasing numbers of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the period 1970-2004 is directly linked to the trend in sea-surface temperature
Anthropogenic Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2006 382(Mann and Emanuel, 2006)https://doi.org/10.1029/2006EO240001Using a formal statistical analysis to separate the estimated influences of anthropogenic climate change from possible natural cyclical influences, this article presents results indicating that anthropogenic factors are likely responsible for long-term trends in tropical Atlantic warmth and tropical cyclone activity
Temporal Global Hurricanes2005 1377(Webster et al., 2005)https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1116448Hurricanes in the strongest categories (4 + 5) have almost doubled in number (50 per pentad in the 1970s to near 90 per pentad during the past decade) and in proportion (from around 20% to around 35% during the same period)...We conclude that global data indicate a 30-year trend toward more frequent and intense hurricanes, corroborated by the results of the recent regional assessment
Warming Global Hurricanes2005 2137Top (Emanuel, 2005)https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s...I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature
Warming Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2008 655Top (Elsner et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07234Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere...We find significant upward trends for wind speed quantiles above the 70th percentile, with trends as high as 0.3 +/- 0.09 m s-1 yr-1 (s.e.) for the strongest cyclones.
Temporal Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2008 18(Kossin, 2008)https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036012Observed trends in the annual distribution of North Atlantic tropical storm formation...during the period 1851-2007...A consistent signal emerged that suggests the season has become longer as the earliest formation dates of the season have become earlier and the latest dates have become later.
Temporal Western North Pacific Hurricanes2018 2(Tu et al., 2018)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade3aThe destructive potential of TCs has a considerable increasing trend from 1998 to 2016 (the P2 period), mainly contributed by the average intensity of TCs
Anthropogenic Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2019 15(Bhatia et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08471-zHere, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982-2009...our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing.
Temporal China Hurricanes2020 1(Liu et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0451.1This study investigates the trend in destructive potential of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in terms of power dissipation index (PDI) over mainland China in the period of 1980-2018. Results show that both the accumulated PDI and averaged PDI after landfall show significant increasing trends.
Temporal United States Hurricanes2010 77(Kunkel et al., 2010)https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045164Precipitation time series for 935 long-term U.S. climate stations were analyzed to identify daily extreme events associated with tropical cyclones...during 1994-2008, the number of TC-associated events was more than double the long-term average while the total annual national number of events was about 25% above the long-term (1895-2008) average.
Warming Global Hurricanes2020 8Top (Kossin et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920849117Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979-2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities ... Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade
Anthropogenic Global Hurricanes2019 43Top (Knutson et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1The balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to...increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s, increase in global proportion of TCs reaching category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades.
Warming Global Hurricanes2016 8(Xu et al., 2016)https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0164.1An empirical relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the maximum potential intensification rate (MPIR) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic has been developed based on the best-track TC data and the observed SST during 1988-2014...results from this study show a nonlinear increasing trend of the MPIR with increasing SST.
Warming United States Hurricanes2015 41(Estrada et al., 2015)https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2560Based on records of geophysical data, we identify an upward trend in both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin as well as in the number of loss-generating tropical cyclone records in the United States that is consistent with the smoothed global average rise in surface air temperature...we identify an upward trend in economic losses between 1900 and 2005 that cannot be explained by commonly used socioeconomic variables.
Warming Global Hurricanes2015 4(Fraza & Elsner, 2015)https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2015.1066146The climatic influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on intensification is examined for North Atlantic hurricanes by averaging hourly intensity increases from best-track data over the period 1986-2013...on average, mean intensification increases by 16% [(9, 20)% uncertainty interval] for every 1 C increase in mean SST.
Temporal Global Hurricanes2013 100(Kossin et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00262.1To create a more temporally consistent record of tropical cyclone intensity within the period 1982-2009...global trends deduced using quantile regression are shown. In the best track, the trend in the mean lifetime maximum intensity is about +2 m s-1 decade-1 and is statistically significant.
Warming Global Hurricanes2015 39(Kang & Elsner, 2015)https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2646We calculate an average increase in global tropical cyclone intensity of 1.3 m s-1 over the past 30 years of ocean warming occurring at the expense of 6.1 tropical cyclones worldwide.
Warming Global Hurricanes2012 13(Kishtawal et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051700Over all the basins, the rate of Tropical Cyclone intensification from 64 kt to first peak of intensity maxima (global average value = 104 kt) was found to be positive...the trends indicate that the TCs now intensify from 64 kt to 104 kt nearly 9 hours earlier than they did 25 years back...increasing TC intensification may partly be attributed to the rate of ocean warming at different basins.
Warming Pacific Ocean Hurricanes2016 103(Mei & Xie, 2016)https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2792Over the past 37 years, typhoons that strike East and Southeast Asia have intensified by 12-15%, with the proportion of storms of categories 4 and 5 having doubled or even tripled...we find that the increased intensity of landfalling typhoons is due to strengthened intensification rates, which in turn are tied to locally enhanced ocean surface warming on the rim of East and Southeast Asia.
Temporal Pacific Ocean Hurricanes2012 19(Kang & Elsner, 2012)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00735.1The consensus of TC trends between the two agencies over the period is interpreted as fewer but stronger events since 1984, even with the lower power dissipation index (PDI) in the western North Pacific in recent years.
Warming Global Hurricanes2010 164(Menendez & Woodworth, 2010)https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005997Mean sea level (MSL) has generally increased worldwide during the 20th century due to the thermal expansion of sea water, the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, and the hydrological exchanges between the land and the ocean...there has indeed been an increase in extreme high water levels worldwide since 1970...results show that the MSL rise is the major reason for the rise in extreme high water at most stations.
Warming United States Hurricanes2019 Top (Grinsted et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912277116Our data reveal an emergent positive trend in damage, which we attribute to a detectable change in extreme storms due to global warming
Warming Global Hurricanes2020 Top (Elsner, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0338.1The strongest tropical cyclones have continued to get stronger...Here I show that this is the case with increases in the upper quantile intensities of global tropical cyclones amounting to between 3.5 and 4.5% in the period 2007-2019 relative to the earlier base period (1981-2006)
Warming Global Hurricanes2020 (Li & Chakraborty, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2867-7Here we analyse intensity data for North Atlantic landfalling hurricanes11 over the past 50 years and show that hurricane decay has slowed, and that the slowdown in the decay over time is in direct proportion to a contemporaneous rise in the sea surface temperature.
Warming China Hurricanes2020 (Ji et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033234In the southeastern coastal area of China for the past 60 years...in terms of climate change response, it is clear that the frequency, duration, and intensity of storm surges have increased significantly since the end of the 1980s...with the intensification of climate warming, the intensity has increased rapidly.
Warming Indian Ocean Hurricanes2020 (Vidya et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abceedThe present study examines the role of the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) warming on the cyclone destruction potential or Power Dissipation Index (PDI) during two contrasting periods of 1980-1998 and 1999-2016. The PDI in the SIO during 1999-2016 is found to have doubled compared to the same during 1980-1998...the increasing trend in PDI during the latter period is primarily due to an increase in the intensity of cyclones and their duration...the increasing PDI is associated with a sea surface temperature warming.
Anthropogenic Global Intensity2013 Top (Holland & Bruyere, 2013)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0We conclude that since 1975 there has been a substantial and observable regional and global increase in the proportion of Cat 4-5 hurricanes of 25-30% per degree C of anthropogenic global warming. The increasing proportion of intense hurricanes has been accompanied by a similar decrease in weaker hurricanes.
Anthropogenic Global Intensity2007 (Emanuel, 2007)https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1571.1Over the last 25 yr...there has been a 10% increase in potential intensity in the tropical Atlantic, and a 6% increase in the western North Pacific during this time, owing mostly to increasing net radiative fluxes into the ocean and decreasing tropopause temperature.
Warming Bermuda Intensity2021 (Hallam et al., 2021)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe493The results show a more easterly genesis over time and significant increasing trends in TC intensity (maximum wind speed (Vmax)) with a decadal Vmax median value increase of 30 kts from 33 to 63 kts (r = 0.94, p = 0.02), together with significant increasing August, September, October sea surface temperature (SST) of 1.1 C
Warming China Intensity2021 (Xiao et al., 2021)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0647.1Results further show that tropical cyclones (TCs) forming in the sea surface near land (6-21N, 130-137E) have been more likely to intensify to super TCs in recent years...the intensification of TC is mainly due to the increase in the intensification rate, which increases with increased sea surface temperature (SST)...western South China, Southeast China, and Japan are facing an increase in landfalling super TCs.
Warming Arabian Sea Hurricanes2021 (Deshpande et al., 2021)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05880-zDuring the study period (1982-2019), a significant increasing trend in the intensity, frequency, and duration of cyclonic storms (CS) and very severe CS (VSCS) is observed over the Arabian Sea.
Warming Global Hurricanes2021 (Guzman & Jiang, 2021)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25685-2Overall, observations exhibit an increasing trend in the average TC rainfall rate of about 1.3% per year...these trends are associated with increases in sea surface temperature and total precipitable water in the TC environment.
Warming China Hurricanes2021 (Wei et al., 2021)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.10586...Both frequency and duration of Tropical Cyclone (TC) induced regional heavy precipitation events (RHPEs) are significantly increasing in southeastern and northeastern China...meanwhile, the exceedance probability of extreme TC-induced RHPEs is increasing in recent decades.

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