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Food Production (35 Papers)

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Shortlist Attribution Region SubCategory Year # Citations Cite As DOI Key Quote
Anthropogenic Peru Hunter Gatherers2010 121(Bury et al., 2010) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are undergoing rapid retreat, in large part due to climate change...Physical observations of the Yanamarey glacier show acceleration in frontal retreat at a rate of 8 m decade-1 since 1970...Hydrological and hydrochemical analyses document a possible transformation of stream flow over the past decade as the seasonal storage capacity of the glacier has degraded...which is increasing human vulnerability in the watershed.
Warming Africa (Central) Fisheries2008 14(Descy and Sarmento, 2008) present information indicating that phytoplankton composition in lakes Tanganyika and Kivu may reflect recent changes as a result of global warming or species introduction.
Warming Denmark Crops2011 100(Kristensen et al., 2011) on grain yield from field trials on winter wheat under conventional farming, harvested between 1992 and 2008, were combined with daily weather data available for 44 grids covering Denmark...The agroclimatic index for summer temperature showed the strongest effect causing lower yields with increasing temperature
Warming Global Crops2007 1240(Lobell and Field, 2007) wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002
Warming Global Crops2011 2453(Lobell et al., 2011) that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8 and 5.5%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends
Warming Zimbabwe Fisheries2011 29(Ndebele-Murisa et al., 2011) around the Kariba area have been rising since 1964; with the maximum range increasing at a faster rate than the minimum temperatures. Kapenta fish production has decreased significantly (R 2 =0.85, P≤0.05) since 1974 at an average rate of 24.19 metric tons per year...both climate (maximum temperature in particular) and nutrients, which are influenced by water levels, are the primary determinants of Lake Kariba's Kapenta production
Anthropogenic Philippines Crops2004 1495Top (Peng et al., 2004) analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature...Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1 C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming.
Warming Global Fisheries2004 799(Atkinson et al, 2004) support commercial fisheries...we have combined all available scientific net sampling data from 1926 to 2003...the productive southwest Atlantic sector contains >50% of Southern Ocean krill stocks, but here their density has declined since the 1970s...summer krill densities correlate positively with sea-ice extent the previous winter.
Warming China Crops2009 227(You et al., 2009) we use a 1979-2000 Chinese crop-specific panel dataset to investigate the climate impact on Chinese wheat yield growth...Rising temperature over the past two decades accounts for a 4.5% decline in wheat yields in China
Warming Australia Crops2017 151(Hochman et al., 2017) show that wheat yields in Australia have stalled since 1990 and investigate the extent to which climate trends account for this observation...water-limited yield potential declined by 27% over a 26 year period from 1990 to 2015. We attribute this decline to reduced rainfall and to rising temperatures.
Temporal Global Crops2016 1477(Lesk et al., 2016) we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%...Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts.
Warming China Crops2018 18(Zhang and Hu, 2018) corn growing season had a drying trend during 1981-2009 in the whole study region, and this trend reach 90% confidence level over half of the region...drought is becoming serious under global warming. There is a positive correlation between corn yield losses and drought hazards.
Warming China Crops2015 11(Zhang et al., 2015) results indicate that a significant warming-drying trend existed in the northern agro-pastural ecotone of China from 1980 to 2009, and this trend significantly decreased crop (spring wheat, naked oat, and potato) yields. Furthermore, the yield decreased by 16.2%-8.4% with a 1 C increase in maximum temperature and decreased by 6.6% - 11.8% with a 10% decrease in precipitation
Warming Thailand Crops2018 77(Prabnakorn t al., 2018) this paper, we investigate climatic conditions of the past 30 years (1984-2013) and assess the impacts of the recent climate trends on rice yields in the Mun River Basin in northeast Thailand...Our results indicate that the total yield losses due to past climate trends are rather low, in the range of < 50 kg/ha per decade (3% of actual average yields). In general, increasing trends in minimum and maximum temperatures lead to modest yield losses.
Warming Global Crops2019 274Top (Ray et al., 2019) statistics were compiled from 1974-2013 for ten crops across ~20,000 political units globally...this is the first observational global study reporting the impact of current climate change on the yields of the top ten global crops...among the top three global cereals, recent yields have decreased for rice (-0.3% or ~-1.6 million tons (MT) annually) and wheat (-0.9% or ~-5.0 MT annually)...we found that crop yields across Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and Australia had in general decreased because of climate change, though exceptions are present. Similar variations are seen in other crops and regions all over the world...recent climate change has likely reduced overall consumable food calories in these ten crops by ~1%.
Warming China Crops2020 8(Bai & Xiao, 2020) on the observed data from 51 agro-meteorological stations across China during 1981-2010...the results indicated that climate change during the past three decades had a negative impact on rice growth and development.
Warming Global Fisheries2020 811(Boyce, Lewis and Worm, 2010) account for approximately half the production of organic matter on Earth. We observe declines in eight out of ten ocean regions, and estimate a global rate of decline of 1% of the global median per year...long-term declining trends are related to increasing sea surface temperatures.
Warming Lake Tanganyika Fisheries2007 475(O'Reilly et al., 2003) we present evidence that climate warming is diminishing productivity in Lake Tanganyika, East Africa. In parallel with regional warming patterns since the beginning of the twentieth century...primary productivity may have decreased by about 20%, implying a roughly 30% decrease in fish yields.
Warming North Sea Fisheries2005 1237(Perry et al., 2005) show that the distributions of both exploited and nonexploited North Sea fishes have responded markedly to recent increases in sea temperature, with nearly two-thirds of species shifting in mean latitude or depth or both over 25 years...species with shifting distributions have faster life cycles and smaller body sizes than nonshifting species
Temporal Africa Crops2014 68(Shi and Tao, 2014) of maize yields and climate variables in the maize growing seasons were used to assess the vulnerability of African maize yields to climate change and variability with different levels of management at country scale between 1961 and 2010...the negative impacts of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation and SPEI on maize yields progressively increased at the whole continent scale over the time period studied.
Temporal Uganda Crops2016 34(Egeru, 2016) percent of the pastoralists noted that the climate had changed evidenced by high but erratic rainfall, occurrence of floods and variation in rainfall onset and cessation among other indicators. This change in climate had led to emergence of 'new' livestock and crop diseases, crop failure and low yields leading to frequent food shortages, water shortages, poor market access, and variation in pasture availability among other effects.
Warming India Crops2016 75(Gupta et al., 2016) are estimated to be about 5.2% lower than they would have been if temperatures had not increased during the study period.
Warming Nigeria Crops2016 3(Ifeanyi-obi et al., 2016) major influence of climate change on cocoyam production include decline in yield of cocoyam, reduction of soil fertility, uncertainty in planting and harvesting date, stunted growth of cocoyam, increase in decay of planted corms/cormels and increase loss during storage in the barns.
Warming Global Crops2018 48(Lizumi et al., 2018), we estimate the impacts of climate change on the global average yields of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans for 1981-2010, relative to the preindustrial climate...climate change has decreased the global mean yields of maize, wheat and soybeans by 4.1, 1.8 and 4.5%, respectively, relative to the counterfactual simulation
Warming Nepal Crops2014 35(Paudel et al., 2014) occurrence of extreme events and increased variability in temperature has increased the vulnerability of crops to biotic and abiotic stresses and altered the timing of agricultural operations; thereby affecting crop production.
Warming Global Crops2013 517(Bebber et al., 2013), we demonstrate an average poleward shift of 2.7+/-0.8 kmyr-1 since 1960, in observations of hundreds of pests and pathogens...the observed positive latitudinal trends in many taxa support the hypothesis of global warming-driven pest movement.
Warming Sudan Crops2021 1(Musa et al., 2021) all three areas, regression analysis detected upward trends in the growing-season temperature...the yields were negatively correlated with the growing-season temperature, particularly THN in Northern State, TMAX in Gezira State, and TMIN in Kassala State. These results confirm that the recent increase in the growing-season temperature might have reduced the yield to some extent in the breadbasket of Sudan.
Anthropogenic United States Crops2021 9(Diffenbaugh et al., 2021) econometric analysis in combination with observed and simulated changes in county-level temperature, we show that global warming has already contributed substantially to rising crop insurance losses in the U.S...county-level temperature trends have contributed $27.0 billion - or 19% - of the national-level crop insurance losses over the 1991-2017 period.
Warming China Crops2021 15(Wang et al., 2021), on the basis of a unique historical dataset with more than 5,500 statistical records, we found an increased occurrence of crop pests and diseases (CPD) in every province of China, with the national average rate of CPD occurrence increasing by a factor of four (from 53% to 218%) during 1970-2016. Historical climate change is responsible for more than one-fifth of the observed increment of CPD occurrence...ranging from 2% to 79% in different provinces.
Temporal Global Crops2021 7(He et al., 2021) proposed a novel approach to identify and summarize CDHEs [compound drought and heatwave events] by taking "crop growing season" as accumulated period, and investigated the spatiotemporal changes of CDHEs occurring within wheat growing seasons over global wheat-producing areas during 1981-2020...the frequency of CDHEs increased significantly in 28.2% of wheat-producing areas, and the total duration of CDHEs increased significantly in 33.2% of wheat-producing areas
Warming Nebraska Crops2022 5(dos Santos et al., 2022) predominant increase in mean maximum and minimum temperatures in Nebraska in the last four decades was observed with a nighttime warming trend. The extreme maximum temperatures and diurnal temperature range indices are environmental factors that negatively impact the rainfed crop production in Nebraska.
Warming China Crops2022 5(Tao et al., 2022) 1981-2018, climate warming shortened growing period (GP) on average by 4.2 and 4.6 days/decade for winter and spring wheat, respectively.
Warming United States Crops2020 (Eck et al., 2020) the southeastern United States...detrended county-level yield data (1981-2018) were analyzed...surface crops in the region suffer considerable declines as a result of higher than normal maximum temperatures during the growing season...although drought conditions result in negative departures from expected yield, the findings of this study highlight that excess moisture in the latter part of the growing season (Sep-Oct) can be equally damaging.
Warming Hungary Crops2017 (Pinke and Lovei, 2017) analysis of 30-year segments indicated a monotonously increasing negative impact of temperature on crop yields. A 1 C temperature increase reduced the yield of the four main cereals by 9.6%-14.8% in 1981-2010.
Anthropogenic Europe Crops2021 (Bras et al., 2021), we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD...the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from -2.2% (1964-1990) to -7.3% (1991-2015)

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