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Shortlist Attribution Region SubCategory Year # Citations Cite As DOI Key Quote
Warming Africa (East) Malaria2006 269Top (Pascual et al., 2006)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0508929103The incidence of malaria in the East African highlands has increased since the end of the 1970s...To assess the biological significance of this trend, we drive a dynamical model for the population dynamics of the mosquito vector with the temperature time series and the corresponding detrended versions...the observed temperature changes would be significantly amplified by the mosquito population dynamics with a difference in the biological response at least 1 order of magnitude larger than that in the environmental variable
Temporal Africa (South) Cholera2009 29Top (Paz, 2009)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-009-0264-7In light of this, a Poisson Regression Model has been used to analyze the possible association between the cholera rates in southeastern Africa and the annual variability of air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) at regional and hemispheric scales, for the period 1971-2006. The results showed a significant exponential increase of cholera rates in humans during the study period. In addition, it was found that the annual mean air temperature and SST at the local scale, as well as anomalies at hemispheric scales, had significant impact on the cholera incidence during the study period
Anthropogenic Africa (East) Malaria2010 100Top (Alonso et al., 2010)https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2010.2020We focus instead on the recent past (1970-2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa...These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region
Anthropogenic Philippines Crops2004 1465Top (Peng et al., 2004)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0403720101We analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature...Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1 C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming.
Warming Germany Floods2009 224Top (Petrow and Merz, 2009)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.024Flood time series are derived and analyzed for trends for 145 discharge gauges in Germany. A common time period of 52 years (1951-2002) is used...Our analysis detects significant flood trends (at the 10% significance level) for a considerable fraction of basins. In most cases, these trends are upward; decreasing flood trends are rarely found and are not field-significant...the observed changes in flood behavior are climate-driven.
Anthropogenic France Extreme Precipitation2019 10Top (Ribes et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4179-2We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area...The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period...We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate.
Temporal United States Drought2007 127Top (Groisman and Knight, 2007)https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2013.1During the past four decades, the mean duration of prolonged dry episodes (1 month or longer in the eastern United States and 2 months or longer in the southwestern United States) has significantly increased.
Warming Global Hurricanes2006 228Top (Hoyos et al., 2006)https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1123560The results show that the trend of increasing numbers of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the period 1970-2004 is directly linked to the trend in sea-surface temperature
Warming Global Hurricanes2005 2363Top (Emanuel, 2005)https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s...I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature
Warming Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2008 731Top (Elsner et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07234Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere...We find significant upward trends for wind speed quantiles above the 70th percentile, with trends as high as 0.3 +/- 0.09 m s-1 yr-1 (s.e.) for the strongest cyclones.
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2012 169Top (Groisman et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-039.1During the past 31 yr (compared to the 1948-78 period), significant increases occurred in the frequency of very heavy (the daily rain events above 76.2 mm) and extreme precipitation events (defined as daily and multiday rain events with totals above 154.9 mm or 6 in.), with up to 40% increases in the frequency of days and multiday extreme rain events
Warming North America Extreme Precipitation2008 146Top (Peterson et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009453Station data from Canada, the United States, and Mexico enabled analysis of changes in North American extremes starting in 1950...On the basis of several measures, heavy precipitation has been increasing over the last half century, and the average amount of precipitation falling on days with precipitation has also been increasing.
Anthropogenic Canada Fires2004 498Top (Gillett et al., 2004)https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020876There has been a pronounced upward trend in area burned by wildland fires in Canada over the past three decades...We further show that human-induced climate change has had a detectable influence on the area burned by forest fire in Canada over recent decades...mean temperature is highly correlated with total area burned in Canada (r = 0.77).
Warming Global Extreme Precipitation2009 3Top (Höppe and Grimm, 2009)https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-77353-7_2Throughout the world...natural catastrophes have increased dramatically and are causing more and more damage...The upward trend in numbers of natural catastrophes is mainly due to weather-related events such as windstorms and floods...there is some justification for assuming that this trend is the result of changes in the atmosphere, most probably global warming.
Anthropogenic United States Heat Waves2012 59Top (Duffy and Tebaldi, 2012)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0396-6Analysis of observations and climate model results shows that previously rare (5th percentile) summertime average temperatures are presently occurring with greatly increased frequency in some regions of the 48 contiguous United States...this result is more consistent with the consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations than with the effects of natural climate variability
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2013 358Top (Kunkel, 2013)https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1There is strong evidence for a nationally averaged upward trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events
Temporal Africa Drought2014 335Top (Masih et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014The study is based on the review and analysis of droughts occurred during 1900-2013 [in Africa]...Most of the studies based on instrumental records indicate that droughts have become more frequent, intense and widespread during the last 50 years.
Temporal Global Desertification2014 93Top (Spinoni et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4124We couple the information obtained from the Koppen-Geiger (KG) climate classification and the FAO aridity index (AI), providing an overview of the most evident global changes in climate regimes from 1951-1980 to 1981-2010...Both KG and AI show that the arid areas globally increased between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010...North-Eastern Brazil, Southern Argentina, the Sahel, Zambia and Zimbabwe, the Mediterranean area, North-Eastern China and Sub-Himalayan India have been identified as areas with a significant increase of drylands extent.
Temporal Global Drought2018 187Top (Pan et al., 2018)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.05.018Global vegetation trends during the period 1982-2013...A >60% increase in browning area was found during the study period, and the results consistently indicate that the expansion of browning trends has accelerated since 1994.
Temporal Global Floods2002 1094Top (Milly et al., 2002)https://doi.org/10.1038/415514aUsing both streamflow measurements and numerical simulations...We find that the frequency of great floods increased substantially during the twentieth century.
Anthropogenic United States Fires2016 1105Top (Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence.
Temporal Global Heat Waves2014 276Top (Russo et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022098Results show that the percentage of global area affected by heat waves has increased in recent decades...In the 11 years between 2002 and 2012, the percentage of global area affected by moderate (HWMI >=2), severe (HWMI >=3), and extreme (HWMI >=4) heat waves was threefold greater than in the previous periods (1980-1990 and 1991-2001)
Anthropogenic United States Thunderstorms2013 41Top (Sander et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00023.1Thunderstorm-related normalized economic and insured losses in the United States east of the Rockies from the period 1970-2009 (March-September) exhibit higher peaks and greater variability in the last two decades than in the preceding two decades...from these findings, we conclude that it is predominantly the change in hazard over time--rather than the change in destructible wealth or vulnerability--that has driven up normalized losses...a high probability is assigned to climatic variations primarily driving the changes in normalized losses since 1970...it was demonstrated that the findings presented are consistent with the expected effects of anthropogenic climate change.
Warming Global Crops2019 219Top (Ray et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217148Crop statistics were compiled from 1974-2013 for ten crops across ~20,000 political units globally...this is the first observational global study reporting the impact of current climate change on the yields of the top ten global crops...among the top three global cereals, recent yields have decreased for rice (-0.3% or ~-1.6 million tons (MT) annually) and wheat (-0.9% or ~-5.0 MT annually)...we found that crop yields across Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and Australia had in general decreased because of climate change, though exceptions are present. Similar variations are seen in other crops and regions all over the world...recent climate change has likely reduced overall consumable food calories in these ten crops by ~1%.
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2020 23Top (Kunkel et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0185.1Trends of extreme precipitation (EP) using various combinations of average return intervals (ARIs) of 1, 2, 5, 10, and 20 years...were calculated regionally across the contiguous United States. Nationally, trends are upward...for both the frequency of extreme events and the proportion of total precipitation contributed by the extreme events...the trends for the frequency of extreme events are largest for ARIs of 20 years, the rarest event considered here.
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2020 6Top (Tharu & Dhakal, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03054-wHistoric precipitation time series over the period of 65 years (1950-2014) for 1108 sites was used for the analysis. Our results show that changes in upper quantiles of the distributions of the extreme precipitation (for both ADM and MM) have occurred at a much higher rate than previously believed.
Warming Global Drought2019 16Top (Peng et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.04.0...Since the late 1940s, drylands have increased at a rate of 512,180 km2/decade. The main feature is the sharp jump in drylands expansion in the 1980s, with the area of drylands increasing 3.1% (1.90 x 106km2) between 1980 and 2008 compared to 1948-1979...rapid warming since the 1980s has become an increasing important cause of the recent global drying trend.
Anthropogenic China Drought2020 15Top (Li et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000836The results show that summer hot drought events over northeastern China increased from 1961 to 2005...increased greenhouse gases emission forcing (GHG), and anthropogenic forcing (ANT) can largely reproduce the spatial and temporal features of the trends of summer hot drought events over northeastern China.
Warming United States Extreme Precipitation2019 36Top (Wright et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083235Rainfall events that exceed common engineering design criteria, including 100-year storms, have increased in frequency in most parts of the United States since 1950...we show that in most locations, these increases are likely due to climate warming.
Temporal Global Extreme Precipitation2019 127Top (Papalexiou and Montanari, 2019)https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024067Here we perform a global analysis of 8,730 daily precipitation records focusing on the 1964-2013 period when the global warming accelerates...globally, over the last decade of the studied period we find 7% more extreme events than the expected number.
Anthropogenic China Drought2017 78Top (Chen and Sun, 2017)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.044Drought occurrences across China increased consistently during 1951-2014, especially during the recent twenty years...external natural forcings were mainly responsible for the variability of droughts and anthropogenic influences for their increasing trends, suggesting that anthropogenic warming has increased hot drought occurrences, associated risks and impacts across China.
Warming Global Hurricanes2020 130Top (Kossin et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920849117Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979-2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities ... Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade
Warming Global Hurricanes2020 6Top (Elsner, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0338.1The strongest tropical cyclones have continued to get stronger...Here I show that this is the case with increases in the upper quantile intensities of global tropical cyclones amounting to between 3.5 and 4.5% in the period 2007-2019 relative to the earlier base period (1981-2006)
Anthropogenic Global Extreme Precipitation2020 17Top (Paik et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086875During 1951-2015...anthropogenic greenhouse gas influence is robustly detected in the observed intensification of extreme precipitation over the global land and most of the sub-regions considered
Anthropogenic Global Heat Waves2016 52Top (Knutson & Ploshay, 2016)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1708-zAs a heat stress metric we use a simplified wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index...our analysis suggests that there has been a detectable anthropogenic increase in mean summertime heat stress since 1973, both globally and in most land regions analyzed.
Anthropogenic Global Hurricanes2019 193Top (Knutson et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1The balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to...increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s, increase in global proportion of TCs reaching category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades.
Warming Global Extreme Precipitation2008 36Top (Trenberth, 2008)https://doi.org/10.1002/0470848944.hsa211There is a direct influence of global warming on changes in precipitation and heavy rains...globally averaged over the land area with sufficient data, the percentage contribution to total annual precipitation from very wet days (upper 5%) has increased in the past 50 years.
Warming China Heat Waves2020 10Top (Xie et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03285-2Since the 1960s, the frequencies of the mild, moderate, severe, and extreme heat waves in China have increased significantly with rates of 7.5, 4.3, 1.4, and 1.8 events per year, respectively.
Temporal Global Extreme Precipitation2019 38Top (Donat et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1c8eWe use the globally most complete observational datasets that allow analysis of daily-scale precipitation extremes over the recent 60 year period 1951 to 2010...observations indicate increases in both total and extreme precipitation in the humid regions over the past 60 years...this study confirms that precipitation extremes are increasing in most land regions.
Anthropogenic Global Heat Waves2020 11Top (Chambers, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02884-2Heatwaves have become more frequent and intense due to anthropogenic global warming... from 1980 to 2018... we demonstrated that there is a clear trend in increasing heatwave days globally.
Anthropogenic Global Intensity2013 189Top (Holland & Bruyere, 2013)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0We conclude that since 1975 there has been a substantial and observable regional and global increase in the proportion of Cat 4-5 hurricanes of 25-30% per degree C of anthropogenic global warming. The increasing proportion of intense hurricanes has been accompanied by a similar decrease in weaker hurricanes.
Warming United States Extreme Precipitation2021 4Top (Prein & Mearns, 2021)https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034287Extreme precipitation has increased in frequency and intensity across the Conterminous U.S. This trend is expected to continue under future climate change.
Temporal Global Aridity2022 3Top (Ullah et al., 2022)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.10599...The present study assessed spatiotemporal changes in global aridity over the period 1901-2019, using five aridity indices...except for the AIunep index, the rest of the indices displayed an obvious and consistent increase in aridity over Northern Hemisphere...the increase (decrease) in temperature (soil moisture) has intensified the process of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and aridity across the globe.
Temporal Global Floods2022 1Top (Liu, Shi and Fang, 2022)https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05150-5At a global scale, annual flood occurrence showed an increasing trend during the study period (with a Z value of 2.08 in the MK test). The monotonous increasing trend of global flood frequency was mainly caused by the increase in Level II and Level III flood frequencies, while Level I floods show an decreasing trend but not significant (Fig. 1 and Table 4).
Temporal Global Floods2022 1Top (Liu, Shi and Fang, 2022)https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05150-5Based on global flood events data from the DFO database for 1985-2019, this study analysed the distribution for the occurrence of floods...at a global scale, annual flood occurrence showed an increasing trend during the study period...the increase in global flood frequency has been mainly caused by the increase in the frequency of Level II and Level III floods, and the average affected area of individual flood event has been increasing yearly.
Warming United States Hurricanes2019 Top (Grinsted et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912277116Our data reveal an emergent positive trend in damage, which we attribute to a detectable change in extreme storms due to global warming
Anthropogenic Global Extreme Precipitation2020 Top (Dong et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1017.1Here we conduct a formal detection and attribution analysis on changes in four percentile-based precipitation extreme indices...we show that most land areas with observations experienced increases in these extreme indices with global warming during the historical period 1951-2014...an optimal fingerprinting analysis reveals detectable anthropogenic signals in the observations of these indices averaged over the globe and over most continents.

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