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All (250 Papers)

Shortlist Attribution Region SubCategory Year # Citations Cite As DOI Key Quote
Warming Czech Republic Tick-Based Diseases2012 15(Kriz et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1089/vbz.2011.0900This article presents major epidemiologic features of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in the Czech Republic...since the beginning of the 1990s, there has been a steep rise in incidence...These changes in incidence patterns appear to be linked with changes in climatic and meteorological conditions.
Warming Africa (East) Malaria2006 201(Pascual et al., 2006)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0508929103The incidence of malaria in the East African highlands has increased since the end of the 1970s...To assess the biological significance of this trend, we drive a dynamical model for the population dynamics of the mosquito vector with the temperature time series and the corresponding detrended versions...the observed temperature changes would be significantly amplified by the mosquito population dynamics with a difference in the biological response at least 1 order of magnitude larger than that in the environmental variable
Temporal Africa (South) Cholera2009 19(Paz, 2009)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-009-0264-7In light of this, a Poisson Regression Model has been used to analyze the possible association between the cholera rates in southeastern Africa and the annual variability of air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) at regional and hemispheric scales, for the period 1971-2006. The results showed a significant exponential increase of cholera rates in humans during the study period. In addition, it was found that the annual mean air temperature and SST at the local scale, as well as anomalies at hemispheric scales, had significant impact on the cholera incidence during the study period
Warming Global Cholera2012 83(Vezzulli et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1038/ismej.2011.89We showed that during the last half century, ubiquitous marine bacteria of the Vibrio genus, including Vibrio cholerae, increased in dominance...increased sea surface temperature explained 45% of the variance in Vibrio data, supporting the view that ocean warming is favouring the spread of vibrios and may be the cause of the globally increasing trend in their associated diseases.
Warming Africa (East) Drought2011 227(Williams and Funk, 2011)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0984-yOver the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific...In recent decades (1980-2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the 'long-rains' season of March-June.
Temporal Nigeria Extreme Precipitation2010 92(Adelekan, 2010)https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0956247810380141The paper also considers changes in the frequency and intensity of rainstorms on Lagos Island between 1971 and 2005, which suggest that on average these have become less frequent but more intense.
Anthropogenic Africa (East) Malaria2010 72(Alonso et al., 2010)https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2010.2020We focus instead on the recent past (1970-2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa...These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region
Temporal Peru Reduced Streamflow2012 116(Baraer et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG11J186The results suggest that seven of the nine study watersheds have probably crossed a critical transition point, and now exhibit decreasing dry-season discharge.
Anthropogenic Peru Hunter Gatherers2010 74(Bury et al., 2010)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9870-1Glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are undergoing rapid retreat, in large part due to climate change...Physical observations of the Yanamarey glacier show acceleration in frontal retreat at a rate of 8 m decade-1 since 1970...Hydrological and hydrochemical analyses document a possible transformation of stream flow over the past decade as the seasonal storage capacity of the glacier has degraded...which is increasing human vulnerability in the watershed.
Warming Global Economic Impacts2012 156(Dell et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.4.3.66Higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries...higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output...higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability
Warming Africa (Central) Fisheries2008 14(Descy and Sarmento, 2008)https://doi.org/10.1608/FRJ-1.1.4We present information indicating that phytoplankton composition in lakes Tanganyika and Kivu may reflect recent changes as a result of global warming or species introduction.
Warming Denmark Crops2011 48(Kristensen et al., 2011)https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859610000675Data on grain yield from field trials on winter wheat under conventional farming, harvested between 1992 and 2008, were combined with daily weather data available for 44 grids covering Denmark...The agroclimatic index for summer temperature showed the strongest effect causing lower yields with increasing temperature
Temporal Europe Floods2013 90(Kundzewicz et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.745082A time series of flood information, over 25 years, collected by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, is used to describe the spatio-temporal variability of large floods in Europe...The present analysis shows an increasing trend during the 25-year period in the number of reported floods exceeding severity and magnitude thresholds.
Warming Global Crops2007 653(Lobell and Field, 2007)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002
Warming Global Crops2011 1121Top (Lobell et al., 2011)https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204531Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8 and 5.5%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends
Warming Zimbabwe Fisheries2011 19(Ndebele-Murisa et al., 2011)https://doi.org/10.1080/0035919X.2011.600352Temperatures around the Kariba area have been rising since 1964; with the maximum range increasing at a faster rate than the minimum temperatures. Kapenta fish production has decreased significantly (R 2 =0.85, Pā‰¤0.05) since 1974 at an average rate of 24.19 metric tons per year...both climate (maximum temperature in particular) and nutrients, which are influenced by water levels, are the primary determinants of Lake Kariba's Kapenta production
Anthropogenic Philippines Crops2004 818Top (Peng et al., 2004)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0403720101We analyzed weather data at the International Rice Research Institute Farm from 1979 to 2003 to examine temperature trends and the relationship between rice yield and temperature...Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1 C increase in growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant. This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming.
Warming Germany Floods2009 145(Petrow and Merz, 2009)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.024Flood time series are derived and analyzed for trends for 145 discharge gauges in Germany. A common time period of 52 years (1951-2002) is used...Our analysis detects significant flood trends (at the 10% significance level) for a considerable fraction of basins. In most cases, these trends are upward; decreasing flood trends are rarely found and are not field-significant...the observed changes in flood behavior are climate-driven.
Warming Global Fisheries2004 488Top (Atkinson et al, 2004)https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02996Krill support commercial fisheries...we have combined all available scientific net sampling data from 1926 to 2003...the productive southwest Atlantic sector contains >50% of Southern Ocean krill stocks, but here their density has declined since the 1970s...summer krill densities correlate positively with sea-ice extent the previous winter.
Anthropogenic France Extreme Precipitation2019 10(Ribes et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4179-2We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area...The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period...We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate.
Temporal India Desertification2018 6(Ramarao et al., 2018)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2513-6For the period 1951-2005...An assessment of P/PET estimated using the ensemble mean precipitation shows an increase in aridity over several semiarid regions of India...Our results further reveal a 10% expansion in the area of the semiarid regions during recent decades relative to previous decades
Warming California Fires2019 16(Williams et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001210During 1972-2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area...Based on a regression analysis, the vast majority of the observed increase in summer forest-fire extent since 1972 is accounted for by observed significant increases in warm-season vapor-pressure deficit (caused by warming)
Warming Global Extreme Precipitation2013 353(Westra et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1This study investigates the presence of trends in annual maximum daily precipitation time series obtained from a global dataset of 8326 high-quality land-based observing stations...from 1900 to 2009...statistically significant increasing trends can be detected at the global scale, with close to two-thirds of stations showing increases...there is a statistically significant association with globally averaged near-surface temperature.
Warming China Crops2009 103(You et al., 2009)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.12.0...Here we use a 1979-2000 Chinese crop-specific panel dataset to investigate the climate impact on Chinese wheat yield growth...Rising temperature over the past two decades accounts for a 4.5% decline in wheat yields in China
Warming North America Allergies2011 139(Ziska et al., 2011)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1014107108Here we report that duration of the ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) pollen season has been increasing in recent decades as a function of latitude in North America. Latitudinal effects on increasing season length were associated primarily with a delay in first frost of the fall season and lengthening of the frost free period. Overall, these data indicate a significant increase in the length of the ragweed pollen season by as much as 13-27 d at latitudes above ~44 N since 1995
Warming Africa (North) ZCL2013 35(Bounoua et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.3390%2Fijerph10083172This study describes empirical relationships between L. major ZCL incidence and surface climate indicators. It presents observational evidence from data in two sites that changes in climate in semi-arid pre-Saharan North Africa may be the initial catalyst of a trophic cascade that results in a 1-year delayed response in rodent and sand flies population density and an additional 1-year lag in ZCL-incidence.
Anthropogenic Africa (South) Drought2008 195(Funk et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0708196105Thus, late 20th-century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies
Temporal Africa Drought2009 17(Kniveton et al., 2009)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1792From 1978 to 2002, the start of the wet season arrived later in the year for the majority of the region, as time progressed
Temporal Africa (West) Drought2000 178(Nicholson et al., 2000)https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3C...In West Africa, there has been a pattern of continued aridity since the late 1960s that is most persistent in the more western regions...Rainfall during the last 30 yr (1968-97) has been on average some 15% to 40% lower than during the period 1931-60
Warming Africa (East) Cholera2011 39(Reyburn et al., 2011)https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0277A 1°C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases.
Warming Europe Drought2010 198(Stahl et al., 2010)https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2367-2010Low flows have decreased in most regions where the lowest mean monthly flow occurs in summer...The broad, continental-scale patterns of change are mostly congruent with the hydrological responses expected from future climatic changes
Warming Australia Extreme Precipitation2011 83(Westra and Sisson, 2011)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.06.014From 1965 to 2005, we find a statistically significant increase of 18% for 6-min rainfall over this period
Temporal United States Drought2007 97(Groisman and Knight, 2007)https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2013.1During the past four decades, the mean duration of prolonged dry episodes (1 month or longer in the eastern United States and 2 months or longer in the southwestern United States) has significantly increased.
Warming United States Heat Waves2007 201(Medina-Ramon and Schwartz, 2007)https://doi.org/10.1136/oem.2007.033175These findings suggest that increases in heat-related mortality due to global warming are unlikely to be compensated for by decreases in cold-related mortality and that population acclimatisation to heat is still incomplete.
Warming United States Fires2006 2086Top (Westerling et al., 2006)https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128834We show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons...strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation1997 690(Karl and Knight, 1997)https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079%3C...Since 1910, precipitation has increased by about 10% across the contiguous United States. The increase in precipitation is reflected primarily in the heavy and extreme daily precipitation events. For example, over half (53%) of the total increase of precipitation is due to positive trends in the upper 10 percentiles of the precipitation distribution.
Warming Global Hurricanes2006 162(Hoyos et al., 2006)https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1123560The results show that the trend of increasing numbers of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the period 1970-2004 is directly linked to the trend in sea-surface temperature
Anthropogenic Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2006 309(Mann and Emanuel, 2006)https://doi.org/10.1029/2006EO240001Using a formal statistical analysis to separate the estimated influences of anthropogenic climate change from possible natural cyclical influences, this article presents results indicating that anthropogenic factors are likely responsible for long-term trends in tropical Atlantic warmth and tropical cyclone activity
Temporal Global Hurricanes2005 1377Top (Webster et al., 2005)https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1116448Hurricanes in the strongest categories (4 + 5) have almost doubled in number (50 per pentad in the 1970s to near 90 per pentad during the past decade) and in proportion (from around 20% to around 35% during the same period)...We conclude that global data indicate a 30-year trend toward more frequent and intense hurricanes, corroborated by the results of the recent regional assessment
Warming Global Hurricanes2005 1621Top (Emanuel, 2005)https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s...I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature
Warming Global Drought2011 893(Dai, 2011)https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.81This article reviews recent literature on drought of the last millennium, followed by an update on global aridity changes from 1950 to 2008...recent warming has increased atmospheric moisture demand and likely altered atmospheric circulation patterns, both contributing to the drying
Warming Global Reduced Streamflow2009 412(Dai et al., 2009)https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2592.1One-third of the top 200 rivers (including the Congo, Mississippi, Yenisey, Paraná, Ganges, Columbia, Uruguay, and Niger) show statistically significant trends during 1948-2004, with the rivers having downward trends (45) outnumbering those with upward trends (19)... Comparisons with the CLM3 simulation suggest that direct human influence on annual streamflow is likely small compared with climatic forcing during 1948-2004 for most of the world's major rivers.
Warming Global Extreme Precipitation2013 462(Donat et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50150Changes in extreme precipitation are found, for example, for the number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm, Figure 8a) and the contribution from very wet days (R95pTOT, Figure 8b). Globally averaged, both indices display upward trends during the past 60 years. Similar patterns of change are also found for the average intensity of daily precipitation (Figure 8d)
Anthropogenic Global Allergies2004 179(Beggs, 2004)https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2222.2004.0206...There is now considerable evidence to suggest that climate change will have, and has already had, impacts on aeroallergens
Warming Australia Salmonella2004 98(D'Souza, 2004)https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ede.0000101021.034...Log-linear models describing monthly salmonellosis notifications in terms of calendar time and monthly average temperatures were fitted over the period 1991 to 2001 for each city...The long-term trend showed an increase in salmonellosis notifications in each of the 5 cities. There was a positive association between monthly salmonellosis notifications and mean monthly temperature of the previous month in every city
Temporal Global Extreme Precipitation2002 960Top (Frich et al., 2002)https://doi.org/10.3354/cr019193A new global dataset of derived indicators has been compiled to clarify whether frequency and/or severity of climatic extremes changed during the second half of the 20th century...significant increases have been seen in the extreme amount derived from wet spells and number of heavy rainfall events
Temporal Chile Reduced Streamflow2013 11(Vicuña et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.840380We performed a detailed trend analysis of critical hydroclimatic variables based on observed daily flow, precipitation and temperature within the basin...significant reductions in minimum flow during spring/summer and a disproportionate concentration of high-flow events occurring in the last 10 years were also identified
Warming Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2008 464Top (Elsner et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07234Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere...We find significant upward trends for wind speed quantiles above the 70th percentile, with trends as high as 0.3 +/- 0.09 m s-1 yr-1 (s.e.) for the strongest cyclones.
Temporal China Reduced Streamflow2011 31(Fischer et al., 2011)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2010.08.010Trend tests are applied to daily temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2007 of 192 weather stations...The magnitude of indices describing dryness has increased in the Zhujiang River Basin, and dry periods have become longer while wet periods have shortened in time.
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2012 107(Groisman et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-039.1During the past 31 yr (compared to the 1948-78 period), significant increases occurred in the frequency of every heavy (the daily rain events above 76.2 mm) and extreme precipitation events (defined as daily and multiday rain events with totals above 154.9 mm or 6 in.), with up to 40% increases in the frequency of days and multiday extreme rain events
Temporal Global Extratropical Cyclones2002 77(Paciorek et al., 2002)https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3C...Regional averages for large sectors of the hemisphere provide some evidence for increases in storm activity and forcing, but results vary by region and decade. The number of cyclones does not appear to be increasing, but there is evidence for an increase in intense cyclones.
Warming India Extreme Precipitation2006 727Top (Goswami et al., 2006)https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1132027By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000
Warming North America Extreme Precipitation2008 105(Peterson et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009453Station data from Canada, the United States, and Mexico enabled analysis of changes in North American extremes starting in 1950...On the basis of several measures, heavy precipitation has been increasing over the last half century, and the average amount of precipitation falling on days with precipitation has also been increasing.
Temporal Alaska Storms Other2012 22(Stegall and Zhang, 2012)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00532.1The frequency of extreme wind events (speed above the 95th percentile winds) shows an increasing trend in all months, with the greatest increase occurring in October, showing 8% more extreme wind events in 2009 comparing to 1979... The significant retreat of sea ice in the study area during the most recent decade (e.g., Comiso et al. 2008; Polyakov et al. 2012) most likely contributes to the strong increasing trend in both wind speeds and frequency of extreme wind events.
Temporal Europe Extreme Precipitation2009 76(Zolina et al., 2009)https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JHM1055.1Linear trends in R95tt and R95tot derived from the annual time series are qualitatively consistent and imply a growing occurrence of extreme precipitation up to 3% decade in central western Europe and in south European Russia, with a more evident trend pattern for R95tt.
Temporal Central and South America Extreme Precipitation2005 250(Aguilar et al., 2005)https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006119From Central America and northern South America...over the 1961-2003 period...rainfall events are intensifying and the contribution of wet and very wet days are enlarging
Temporal Europe (Central) Extreme Precipitation2007 85(Bartholy and Pongracz, 2007)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.0...Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for Central/Eastern Europe...regional intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation has increased...between 1976 and 2001, while the total precipitation has decreased
Warming Czech Republic Drought2009 42(Brázdil et al., 2009)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0065-xWe analyze droughts in the Czech Republic from 1881-2006 based on the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI)...This study clearly confirms the statistically significant tendency to more intensive dry episodes in the region, driven by temperature increase and precipitation decrease.
Temporal Japan Extreme Precipitation2006 44(Fujibe et al., 2006)https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.84.1033 Long-term changes in the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation in Japan were analyzed using quality checked daily precipitation data at 51 stations from 1901 to 2004...The result indicates that heavy precipitation based on these indices has increased during the 104 years.
Temporal Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2008 18(Kossin, 2008)https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036012Observed trends in the annual distribution of North Atlantic tropical storm formation...during the period 1851-2007...A consistent signal emerged that suggests the season has become longer as the earliest formation dates of the season have become earlier and the latest dates have become later.
Temporal India Extreme Precipitation2009 86(Krishnamurthy et al., 2009)https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2896.1Using a 1951-2003 gridded daily rainfall dataset for India... for the exceedance of the 99th percentile of daily rainfall, all locations where a significant increasing trend in frequency of exceedance is identified also exhibit a significant trend in rainfall intensity...there is support for the hypothesis that the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall over India may be increasing over the previous 53 years
Anthropogenic Global Floods2002 663(Milly et al., 2002)https://doi.org/10.1038/415514aWe find that the frequency of great floods increased substantially during the twentieth century. The recent emergence of a statistically significant positive trend in risk of great floods is consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests that the trend will continue.
Warming India Extreme Precipitation2008 199(Rajeevan et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035143Using 104 years (1901-2004) of high resolution daily gridded rainfall data...The present study supports the hypothesis that the increasing trend of extreme rainfall events in the last five decades could be associated with the increasing trend of sea surface temperatures and surface latent heat flux over the tropical Indian Ocean
Temporal United States Storms Other2009 28(Changnon, 2009)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9597-zThe nation's top ten loss events during 1950-2006 reveal a notable temporal increase with most losses in the 1992-2006 period. Causes for the increases could be an increasing frequency of very unstable atmospheric conditions leading to bigger, longer lasting storms, and/or a greatly expanded urban society that has become increasingly vulnerable to hailstorms.
Temporal China Floods2005 28(Fengqing et al., 2005)https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-0977-zThere is an increasing trend in flood disasters in Xinjiang during the second half of the 20th century, especially since the mid-1980s...the occurrence of flood disasters could be mainly induced by local human activities before the mid-1980s, and thereafter mainly by abnormal precipitation in Xinjiang...records showed that the number of heavy rainfall events and the frequency of rainstorm flood disasters increased since the 1980s
Anthropogenic Canada Fires2004 324(Gillett et al., 2004)https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020876There has been a pronounced upward trend in area burned by wildland fires in Canada over the past three decades...We further show that human-induced climate change has had a detectable influence on the area burned by forest fire in Canada over recent decades...mean temperature is highly correlated with total area burned in Canada (r = 0.77).
Warming Global Extreme Precipitation2009 1(Höppe and Grimm, 2009)https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-77353-7_2Throughout the world...natural catastrophes have increased dramatically and are causing more and more damage...The upward trend in numbers of natural catastrophes is mainly due to weather-related events such as windstorms and floods...there is some justification for assuming that this trend is the result of changes in the atmosphere, most probably global warming.
Anthropogenic United States Heat Waves2012 40(Duffy and Tebaldi, 2012)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0396-6Analysis of observations and climate model results shows that previously rare (5th percentile) summertime average temperatures are presently occurring with greatly increased frequency in some regions of the 48 contiguous United States...this result is more consistent with the consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations than with the effects of natural climate variability
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2013 236(Kunkel, 2013)https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1There is strong evidence for a nationally averaged upward trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events
Warming United States Fires2016 197(Westerling, 2016)https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0178The percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades...Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt
Temporal Western North Pacific Hurricanes2018 2(Tu et al., 2018)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade3aThe destructive potential of TCs has a considerable increasing trend from 1998 to 2016 (the P2 period), mainly contributed by the average intensity of TCs
Temporal Global Drought2014 61(Damberg and AghaKouchak, 2014)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1019-5This paper analyzes changes in areas under droughts over the past three decades...based on satellite gauge-adjusted precipitation observations...we show that several regions, such as the southwestern United States, Texas, parts of the Amazon, the Horn of Africa, northern India, and parts of the Mediterranean region, exhibit a significant drying trend.
Warming Global Desertification2013 220(Feng and Fu, 2013)https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10081-2013By analyzing observations for 1948-2008...we show that global drylands have expanded in the last sixty years
Temporal Kenya Desertification2018 7(Gichenje and Godinho, 2018)https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3067For Kenya...using trends in GIMMS NDVI and land cover datasets over the 24-year period from 1992 to 2015...the country has experienced persistent negative trends (browning) over 21.6% of the country, and persistent positive trends (greening) in 8.9% of the country.
Warming Australia Crops2017 40(Hochman et al., 2017)https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13604We show that wheat yields in Australia have stalled since 1990 and investigate the extent to which climate trends account for this observation...water-limited yield potential declined by 27% over a 26 year period from 1990 to 2015. We attribute this decline to reduced rainfall and to rising temperatures.
Temporal California Desertification2011 10(Lam et al., 2011)https://doi.org/10.3390/rs3010001Over a 24-year period (1982, 1988, 1994, 2000, and 2006)...the advancement rate of sand within the Kelso Dunes experienced an encroachment rate of approximately 5.9 m3/m/yr, with advancement accelerating towards the latter half
Warming Mongolia Desertification2013 62(Liu et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0057599Here we use a recently developed 21-year (1988-2008) record of satellite based vegetation optical depth (VOD, a proxy for vegetation water content and aboveground biomass), to show that nearly all steppe grasslands in Mongolia experienced significant decreases in VOD. Approximately 60% of the VOD declines can be directly explained by variations in rainfall and surface temperature.
Temporal Africa Drought2012 19(Marshall et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1299-yIn this paper, we examine the trends in Ea, precipitation (P), daily maximum temperature (Tmax), and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) on a seasonal basis using a 31 year time series of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface model (LSM) Ea...the historical analysis reveals substantial drying over much of the Sahel and East Africa during the primary growing season
Temporal Africa Drought2014 127(Masih et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014The study is based on the review and analysis of droughts occurred during 1900-2013 [in Africa]...Most of the studies based on instrumental records indicate that droughts have become more frequent, intense and widespread during the last 50 years.
Temporal Middle East Dust Storms2018 9(Namdari et al., 2018)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.11.01...Dust events in the Middle East are becoming more frequent and intense in recent years...Precipitation data suggest that long-term reductions in rainfall promoted lower soil moisture and vegetative cover, leading to more intense dust emissions.
Temporal Global Desertification2014 39Top (Spinoni et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4124We couple the information obtained from the Koppen-Geiger (KG) climate classification and the FAO aridity index (AI), providing an overview of the most evident global changes in climate regimes from 1951-1980 to 1981-2010...Both KG and AI show that the arid areas globally increased between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010...North-Eastern Brazil, Southern Argentina, the Sahel, Zambia and Zimbabwe, the Mediterranean area, North-Eastern China and Sub-Himalayan India have been identified as areas with a significant increase of drylands extent.
Temporal South America Heat Waves2016 12(Ceccherini et al. 2016)https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-821-2016This study describes the extreme temperature regime of heat waves and cold waves across South America over recent years (1980-2014)...Results indicate an increase in intensity and in frequency of heat waves, especially in the last 10 years.
Anthropogenic Global Desertification2015 10(Chan and Wu, 2015)https://doi.org/10.1038/srep13487About 5.7% of the global total land area has shifted toward warmer and drier climate types from 1950-2010 and significant changes include expansion of arid and high-latitude continental climate zones.
Temporal Global Desertification2013 99(Chen and Chen, 2013)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2013.03.007It is concluded that the most significant change over 1901-2010 is a distinct areal increase of the dry climate...since the 1980s.
Temporal Global Drought2017 57(Dai and Zhao 2017)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1705-2Updated precipitation and streamflow data and the self-calibrated PDSI_pm all show consistent drying during 1950-2012 over most Africa, East and South Asia, southern Europe, eastern Australia, and many parts of the Americas.
Temporal Europe Heat Waves2014 98(Fischer and Knutti 2014)https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058499The two gridded data sets, HadEX2 and GHCNDEX, consistently show an intensification of hot extremes ...over large parts of Europe, parts of northern Asia (around Mongolia) by 2-3K in the period 1960-2010...More than a third of the land fraction experienced trends that are larger than 1 K over the period 1960-2010.
Warming Global Extreme Precipitation2015 312(Fischer and Knutti 2015)https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2617We show that at the present-day warming of 0.85 C about 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times
Temporal Global Extreme Precipitation2015 109(Lehmann et al. 2015)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1434-yWe present the first analysis of record-breaking daily rainfall events using observational data. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking events has significantly increased in the global mean. Globally, this increase has led to 12 % more record-breaking rainfall events over 1981-2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series.
Temporal Global Crops2016 477Top (Lesk et al., 2016)https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16467Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%...Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts.
Temporal Global Heat Waves2015 63(Mishra et al. 2015; )https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024005Using observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973-2012.
Temporal Global Drought2018 29(Pan et al., 2018)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.05.018Global vegetation trends during the period 1982-2013...A >60% increase in browning area was found during the study period, and the results consistently indicate that the expansion of browning trends has accelerated since 1994.
Temporal Iberian Peninsula Drought2017 10(Pascoa et al., 2017)https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/4653126The long-term evolution of drought in the Iberian Peninsula is analyzed...for the period of 1901-2012...SPEI identified dryer conditions and an increase in the area affected by droughts.
Temporal Asia Drought2015 8(Son and Bae, 2015)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.010For the period of 1963-2006...annual precipitation and runoff in the SAC regions appeared to decrease about 12.1% and 27.3%, respectively...Frequency and duration of droughts in the SAC regions were observed to increase about 9.2 and 1.5 months, respectively, and drought severity index intensified to about -0.15.
Temporal Europe (South) Drought2015 55(Spinoni et al., 2015)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.0...A linear trend analysis shows that drought variables increased in the period 1950-2012 in South-Western Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean and Carpathian regions,
Warming Global Drought2019 11(Spinoni et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100593We constructed a database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016...Over North America, central Europe, central Asia, and Australia, the recent progressive temperature increase outbalanced the increase in precipitation causing more frequent and severe droughts.
Warming Iberian Peninsula Drought2014 166(Vicente-Serrano et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001We use high quality climate data from ground meteorological stations in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and robust drought indices to confirm that drought severity has increased in the past five decades, as a consequence of greater atmospheric evaporative demand resulting from temperature rise.
Temporal China Desertification2019 2(Yin et al. 2019)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4139-xWe delineated the AHCR of China using information about the balance of the atmospheric water supply and demand collected from 581 meteorological stations over the past 50 years...results indicate that the semi-arid region expanded significantly over the last five decades, mainly in northwest China, northern China, and the Tibetan Plateau and, by the 2000s, had increased by 33.53% relative to its extent in the 1960s.
Warming Africa Violence2014 13(Burke et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.3386/w20598Contemporaneous temperature has the largest average effect by far, with each 1 C increase toward warmer temperatures increasing the frequency of contemporaneous interpersonal conflict by 2.4% and of intergroup conflict by 11.3%
Warming Indonesia Violence2016 13(Caruso et al., 2016)https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0022343315616061Focusing on Indonesia over the period 1993-2003...Results show that an increase of the minimum temperature during the core month of the rice growing season, that is, December, determines an increase in violence stimulated by the reduction in future rice production per capita.
Warming Global Violence2013 435Top (Hsiang et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235367Our meta-analysis of studies that examine populations in the post-1950 era suggests that the magnitude of climate's influence on modern conflict is both substantial and highly statistically significant (P < 0.001). Each 1-SD change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall increases the frequency of interpersonal violence by 4% and intergroup conflict by 14% (median estimates).
Warming Africa (Sub-Saharan) Violence2017 5(Jun, 2017)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1941-0Our empirical results confirm effects of temperature on the incidence of civil conflict. The key findings are as follows: (i) between 1970 and 2012 in sub-Saharan Africa, a high temperature during maize growing season reduced the crop's yield, which in turn increased the incidence of civil conflict.
Warming Sudan Violence2014 18(Maystadt et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu033For North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009...a change in temperature anomalies of 1 standard deviation is found to increase the frequency of violent conflict by 32%...we find that temperature variations may have affected about one quarter (26%) of violent events in Sudan.
Warming Africa (Sub-Saharan) Violence2014 31(O'Loughlin et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1411899111Our analysis supports a link between temperature extremes and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa between 1980 and 2012. We find that higher temperatures have the effect of increasing the level of observed conflict in a quasiexperimental research design.
Temporal Global Violence2016 88(Schleussner et al., 2016)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1601611113Based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980-2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities.
Temporal Africa (Sub-Saharan) Violence2014 42(von Uexkull, 2014)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.10.003Using novel high-resolution data on civil conflict events in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1989 to 2008... areas with rainfed croplands see an increased risk of civil conflict violence following drought. There is also some support for the proposition that areas experiencing sustained droughts have a higher risk of conflict
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2005 675(Groisman, 2005)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3339.1Observed changes in intense precipitation (e.g., the frequency of very heavy precipitation or the upper 0.3% of daily precipitation events) have been analyzed... very heavy precipitation has increased during the period of instrumental observations over most of the contiguous United States....In the midlatitudes, there is a widespread increase in the frequency of very heavy precipitation during the past 50 to 100 yr.
Temporal China Extreme Precipitation2017 26(Ma et al., 2017)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0311.1Daily precipitation records from over 700 Chinese stations from 1956 to 2005 are analyzed. The results show a significant shift from light to heavy precipitation over eastern China.
Warming Global Heat Waves2013 96(Coumou et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1Worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming...Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia.
Warming Europe (Central) Hantavirus2009 44(Klempa, 2009)https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-0691.2009.0284...Elevated average temperatures in West-Central Europe have been associated with more frequent Puumala hantavirus outbreaks, through high seed production (mast year) and high bank vole densities
Warming Nigeria Desertification2017 26(Obioha, 2017)https://doi.org/10.1080/09709274.2008.1190608...In the recent times, due to the increasing rate of global warming, the northeast region of Nigeria has been experiencing continuous climatic change characterized by drastic reduction in rainfall, increase in the rate of dryness and heat, which makes it a fast growing arid environment, with depletion in the amount of water, flora and fauna resources on the land.
Anthropogenic Global Drought1998 218(Dai et al., 1998)https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL52511Since the late 1970s, however, there have been some increases in the combined percentage areas in severe drought and severe moisture surplus, resulting from increases in either the drought area (e.g., over the Sahel, eastern Asia and southern Africa) or both the drought and wet areas (e.g., over the U.S. and Europe)...These changes are qualitatively consistent with those expected from increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Anthropogenic Global Drought2004 996Top (Dai et al., 2004)https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-386.1The global very dry areas, defined as PDSI < āˆ’3.0, have more than doubled since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an ENSO-induced precipitation decrease and a subsequent expansion primarily due to surface warming...these results provide observational evidence for the increasing risk of droughts as anthropogenic global warming progresses and produces both increased temperatures and increased drying.
Anthropogenic Australia Drought2004 170(Nicholls, 2004)https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000018515.463...Rainfall over nearly all of Australia during the cooler half of the year (May-October) was well below average in 2002...drought conditions (precipitation minus evaporation) were worse than in previous recent periods with similarly low rainfall (1982, 1994). Mean minimum temperatures were also much higher during the 2002 drought than in the 1982 and 1994 droughts...The possibility that the enhanced greenhouse effect is increasing the severity of Australian droughts...needs to be considered.
Temporal China Drought2009 238(Zhou et al., 2009)https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0396Over the recent decades, the EASM [East Asian summer monsoon] has been weakening from the end of the 1970s which results in a "southern China flood and northern China drought" rainfall pattern...the pronounced weakening tendency of the EASM in recent decades is unprecedented.
Warming Europe Tick-Based Diseases2008 34(Süss et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1708-8305.2007.0017...Recent climate change has improved the living conditions of ticks substantially. One of the consequences is an increased distribution of ticks and a rise of the TBD incidence rate.
Warming Germany Tick-Based Diseases2008 43(Dautel et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmm.2008.01.010This appears to be the first time that extended or even continuous winter activity of I. ricinus nymphs and adults has been demonstrated in Central Europe...I. ricinus now can be active during the whole winter, a time of the year when these ticks historically have been dormant when the weather is normal
Warming Czech Republic Tick-Based Diseases2008 27(Materna et al., 2008)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmm.2008.05.004Comparison with historical data revealed that the I. ricinus upper distribution limit shifted from the former 700-800 m limit at least up to 1100 m above sea level (a.s.l.) during the last two decades...The causes of tick expansion could be found when analysing long-term (1961-2005) climatic data from the Krkonoe Mts., which showed a systematic and significant rise of the mean annual air temperature by 1.4 C at 1000 m a.s.l.
Warming Europe Tick-Based Diseases2000 188(Lindgren et al., 2000)https://dx.doi.org/10.1289%2Fehp.00108119We examined whether a reported northward expansion of the geographic distribution limit of the disease-transmitting tick Ixodes ricinus and an increased tick density between the early 1980s and mid-1990s in Sweden was related to climatic changes...Our results indicate that the reported northern shift in the distribution limit of ticks is related to fewer days during the winter seasons with low minimum temperatures, i.e., below -12 degrees C
Warming Sweden Tick-Based Diseases2001 129(Lindgren and Gustafson, 2001)https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(00)05250-8The incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Sweden has substantially increased since the mid-1980s...The findings indicate that the increase in TBE incidence since the mid-1980s is related to the period's change towards milder winters and early arrival of spring.
Warming Europe (Central) Tick-Based Diseases2004 8(Zeman and Bene, 2004)https://doi.org/10.1016/s1433-1128(04)80008-1Statistical tests proved that the TBE ceiling has gradually moved upwards in the course of the last three decades. Although the dependence of TBE on temperature is not a direct one and various factors could be involved, an impact of climate warming on the vertical disease distribution in Central Europe is evident.
Warming Czech Republic Tick-Based Diseases2004 3(Daniel et al., 2004)https://doi.org/10.1016/s1433-1128(04)80009-3In 1993 the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) showed a sharp rise in Central Europe and has remained high since...Based on these data we conclude that the increased TBE incidence rates reported in 1993 and afterwards are attributable to a more abundant occurrence of I. ricinus ticks and that their higher abundance is due to modified climatic conditions in the last decade
Temporal Global Floods2002 663(Milly et al., 2002)https://doi.org/10.1038/415514aUsing both streamflow measurements and numerical simulations...We find that the frequency of great floods increased substantially during the twentieth century.
Warming Siberia Fires2016 27(Ponomarev et al., 2016)https://doi.org/10.3390/f7060125Wildfire number and burned area temporal dynamics within all of Siberia and along a south-north transect in central Siberia (45 73 N) were studied...Both the number of forest fires and the size of the burned area increased during recent decades (p < 0.05). Significant correlations were found between forest fires, burned areas and air temperature (r = 0.5) and drought index.
Temporal Canada Fires2018 21(Hanes et al., 2018)https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2018-0293This paper presents fire-regime trends [in Canada]...for two time periods, 1959-2015 and 1980-2015...results suggest that large fires have been getting larger over the last 57 years and that the fire season has been starting approximately one week earlier and ending one week later...Overall, Canadian forests appear to have been engaged in a trajectory towards more active fire regimes over the last half century.
Temporal Global Fires2015 344(Jolly et al., 2015)https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8537From 1979 to 2013...we show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km^2 (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length...and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period.
Anthropogenic United States Fires2016 360(Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence.
Anthropogenic Australia Fires2018 15(Dowdy, 2018)https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0167.1Fire weather conditions are examined throughout Australia from gridded daily data from 1950 to 2016...there is a clear trend toward more dangerous conditions during spring and summer in southern Australia, including increased frequency and magnitude of extremes, as well as indicating an earlier start to the fire season. Changes in fire weather conditions are attributable at least in part to anthropogenic climate change, including in relation to increasing temperatures.
Warming Greece Fires2013 59(Koutsias et al., 2013)https://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF12003Historical fire records and meteorological observations, spanning more than 1 century (1894-2010), were gathered and assembled in a database... fire occurrence, expressed as the annual number of fires and total burnt area, was strongly correlated with the mean maximum and the absolute maximum air temperature
Anthropogenic Switzerland Extreme Precipitation2016 29(Scherrer et al., 2016)https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024634Changes in intensity and frequency of daily heavy precipitation and hot temperature extremes are analyzed in Swiss observations for the years 1901 - 2014/2015...Over 90% of the series show increases in heavy precipitation intensity, expressed as annual maximum daily precipitation...and in heavy precipitation frequency, expressed as the number of events greater than the 99th percentile of daily precipitation...The identified trends are unlikely to be random and are consistent with climate model projections
Temporal Global Heat Waves2014 121(Russo et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022098Results show that the percentage of global area affected by heat waves has increased in recent decades...In the 11 years between 2002 and 2012, the percentage of global area affected by moderate (HWMI >=2), severe (HWMI >=3), and extreme (HWMI >=4) heat waves was threefold greater than in the previous periods (1980-1990 and 1991-2001)
Anthropogenic Northern Hemisphere Extreme Precipitation2011 829Top (Min, 2011)https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09763Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas.
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2004 335(Groisman et al., 2004)https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2004)005%3C...Over the contiguous United States, precipitation, temperature, streamflow, and heavy and very heavy precipitation have increased during the twentieth century...much of the increase in heavy and very heavy precipitation has occurred during the past three decades.
Warming Tropics Extreme Precipitation2010 127(Allan et al., 2010)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed...The Special Sensor Microwave Imager data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming.
Temporal Eastern Mediterranean Heat Waves2019 3(Founda et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.02.0...Using historical air temperature data at a number of stations at the Eastern Mediterranean...observational data reveals significant changes in the seasonality of hot extremes and specifically lengthening of their period, which in some cases exceeds 10 days per decade
Anthropogenic Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes2019 15(Bhatia et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08471-zHere, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982-2009...our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing.
Warming China Crops2018 8(Zhang and Hu, 2018)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2469-6The corn growing season had a drying trend during 1981-2009 in the whole study region, and this trend reach 90% confidence level over half of the region...drought is becoming serious under global warming. There is a positive correlation between corn yield losses and drought hazards.
Warming China Crops2015 7(Zhang et al., 2015)https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-015-4083-1The results indicate that a significant warming-drying trend existed in the northern agro-pastural ecotone of China from 1980 to 2009, and this trend significantly decreased crop (spring wheat, naked oat, and potato) yields. Furthermore, the yield decreased by 16.2%-8.4% with a 1 C increase in maximum temperature and decreased by 6.6% - 11.8% with a 10% decrease in precipitation
Anthropogenic United States Thunderstorms2013 28(Sander et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00023.1Thunderstorm-related normalized economic and insured losses in the United States east of the Rockies from the period 1970-2009 (March-September) exhibit higher peaks and greater variability in the last two decades than in the preceding two decades...from these findings, we conclude that it is predominantly the change in hazard over time--rather than the change in destructible wealth or vulnerability--that has driven up normalized losses...a high probability is assigned to climatic variations primarily driving the changes in normalized losses since 1970...it was demonstrated that the findings presented are consistent with the expected effects of anthropogenic climate change.
Warming Thailand Crops2018 26(Prabnakorn t al., 2018)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.1...In this paper, we investigate climatic conditions of the past 30 years (1984-2013) and assess the impacts of the recent climate trends on rice yields in the Mun River Basin in northeast Thailand...Our results indicate that the total yield losses due to past climate trends are rather low, in the range of < 50 kg/ha per decade (3% of actual average yields). In general, increasing trends in minimum and maximum temperatures lead to modest yield losses.
Warming Global Crops2019 21Top (Ray et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217148Crop statistics were compiled from 1974-2013 for ten crops across ~20,000 political units globally...this is the first observational global study reporting the impact of current climate change on the yields of the top ten global crops...among the top three global cereals, recent yields have decreased for rice (-0.3% or ~-1.6 million tons (MT) annually) and wheat (-0.9% or ~-5.0 MT annually)...we found that crop yields across Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and Australia had in general decreased because of climate change, though exceptions are present. Similar variations are seen in other crops and regions all over the world...recent climate change has likely reduced overall consumable food calories in these ten crops by ~1%.
Temporal Sierra Leone Drought2019 1(Wadsworth et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7120144Sierra Leone on the west coast of Africa has a monsoon-type climate...changes in rainfall over the last four decades are examined...there is evidence for a significant reduction in annual rainfall in the northwest.
Temporal United States Heat Waves2020 1(Tavakol et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.10490...For the period 1948-2017 for the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), which covers approximately 41% of the Contiguous United States...more frequent and longer heat waves were observed in western and north-western MRB...a significant increase happened starting in 1994 in the percentage of area with a HW longer than 10 consecutive days.
Warming Greece Economic Impacts2020 1(Gratton et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02634-zTime series of meteorological parameters at ten Greek airports since 1955 indicated the level of climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean area...for airports where aeroplane maximum take-off mass is a performance limited function of runway length, and where minimum temperatures have increased and/or mean headwind components decreased, climate change has already had a marked impact on the economic activity in the airline industry
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2020 1(Brown, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0119.1Annual trends in extreme hourly precipitation time series were examined at 50 first-order weather stations across the Southeast United States (SeUS) from 1960-2017...the numerical value that defines a (station specific) 90th percentile hourly accumulation significantly(p.< 0.05) increased at 36% (18/50) of the stations.
Temporal China Hurricanes2020 1(Liu et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0451.1This study investigates the trend in destructive potential of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in terms of power dissipation index (PDI) over mainland China in the period of 1980-2018. Results show that both the accumulated PDI and averaged PDI after landfall show significant increasing trends.
Temporal Horn of Africa Drought2019 2(Haile et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.1352...The results showed that despite regional differences, an overall increasing tendency of drought was observed across the [Greater Horn of Africa] over the past 52 yr, with trends of change of -0.0017 yr-1, -0.0036 yr-1, -0.0031 yr-1, and -0.0023 yr-1 for SPEI-01, SPEI-03, SPEI-06, and SPEI-12, respectively.
Temporal Nigeria Drought2018 24(Shiru et al., 2018)https://doi.org/10.3390/su10030871Gauge-based gridded rainfall and temperature data for the period 1961-2010 [for Nigeria] with spatial resolutions of 0.5deg were used...The occurrences of droughts, particularly moderate droughts with smaller areal extents, were found to increase for all of the seasons
Warming Nigeria Drought2019 21(Shiru et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.01...Nigeria for the period 1901-2010...a general decrease in the return periods of droughts indicates more frequent droughts during all cropping seasons of Nigeria. Therefore, it can be concluded that the rising temperature due to global warming would increase drought severity and frequency in all the cropping seasons of Nigeria.
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2020 3(Kunkel et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0185.1Trends of extreme precipitation (EP) using various combinations of average return intervals (ARIs) of 1, 2, 5, 10, and 20 years...were calculated regionally across the contiguous United States. Nationally, trends are upward...for both the frequency of extreme events and the proportion of total precipitation contributed by the extreme events...the trends for the frequency of extreme events are largest for ARIs of 20 years, the rarest event considered here.
Temporal Bangladesh Drought2019 1(Kamruzzaman et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.3390/w11122437In Bangladesh...monthly precipitation data for 36 years (1980-2015) obtained from 27 metrological stations, were used in this study...The frequency of droughts in all categories significantly increased during the last quinquennial period (2011 to 2015).
Temporal Africa (West) Extreme Precipitation2019 3(Nkrumah et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10120741This study makes use of a large set of daily rain gauge data covering Southern West Africa...from 1950 to 2014...During the first rainy season (April-July), mean annual rainfall is observed to have a minor trend due to less frequent but more intense rainfall mainly along the coast of Southern West Africa (SWA) over the last two decades.
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2020 1(Tharu & Dhakal, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03054-wHistoric precipitation time series over the period of 65 years (1950-2014) for 1108 sites was used for the analysis. Our results show that changes in upper quantiles of the distributions of the extreme precipitation (for both ADM and MM) have occurred at a much higher rate than previously believed.
Temporal Caribbean Drought2017 13(Herrera and Ault, 2017)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0838.1Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of drought in the Caribbean...this work introduces a first of its kind high-resolution drought dataset for the Caribbean region from 1950 to 2016...linear trends in the scPDSI show a significant drying in the study area, averaging an scPDSI change of -0.09 decade-1 (p < 0.05).
Warming Global Drought2019 1(Peng et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.04.0...Since the late 1940s, drylands have increased at a rate of 512,180 km2/decade. The main feature is the sharp jump in drylands expansion in the 1980s, with the area of drylands increasing 3.1% (1.90 x 106km2) between 1980 and 2008 compared to 1948-1979...rapid warming since the 1980s has become an increasing important cause of the recent global drying trend.
Anthropogenic China Drought2020 1(Li et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000836The results show that summer hot drought events over northeastern China increased from 1961 to 2005...increased greenhouse gases emission forcing (GHG), and anthropogenic forcing (ANT) can largely reproduce the spatial and temporal features of the trends of summer hot drought events over northeastern China.
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2017 27(Huang, 2017)https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0195.1Spatially averaged, both annual total and extreme precipitation across the Northeast increased significantly since 1901, with changepoints occurring in 2002 and 1996, respectively. Annual extreme precipitation experienced a larger increase than total precipitation; extreme precipitation from 1996 to 2014 is 53% higher than from 1901 to 1995.
Anthropogenic Australia Fires2019 3(Harris and Lucas, 2019)https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222328Australian fire weather shows spatiotemporal variability on interannual and multi-decadal time scales...on longer time scales (45 years), linear trends are upward at most stations...we propose that anthropogenic climate change is the primary driver of the trend, through both higher mean temperatures and potentially through associated shifts in large-scale rainfall patterns.
Temporal United States Fires2014 320(Dennison et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059576For 1984-2011...over the western U.S. and in a majority of ecoregions, we found significant, increasing trends in the number of large fires and/or total large fire area per year. Trends were most significant for southern and mountain ecoregions, coinciding with trends toward increased drought severity. For all ecoregions combined, the number of large fires increased at a rate of seven fires per year, while total fire area increased at a rate of 355 km2 per year.
Anthropogenic Mediterranean Basin Leishmaniasis2018 10(Chalghaf et al., 2018)https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-018-3019-xDue to climate change, the geographical distribution of sand flies during the last decades has shifted northward from latitudes below 45 N in southern Europe to latitudes just above 50 N....in central Europe, some autochthone leishmaniasis cases are being recorded in regions traditionally regarded as leishmaniasis-free.
Temporal Iran Desertification2020 6(Pour et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.10470...In Iran during 1951-2016...the results revealed an increase in annual and seasonal aridity in Iran, which caused expansion of arid land...might have severe consequences on agricultural production and food security of the country.
Warming United States Extreme Precipitation2019 7(Wright et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083235Rainfall events that exceed common engineering design criteria, including 100-year storms, have increased in frequency in most parts of the United States since 1950...we show that in most locations, these increases are likely due to climate warming.
Temporal Global Extreme Precipitation2019 11Top (Papalexiou and Montanari, 2019)https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024067Here we perform a global analysis of 8,730 daily precipitation records focusing on the 1964-2013 period when the global warming accelerates...globally, over the last decade of the studied period we find 7% more extreme events than the expected number.
Temporal Brazil Drought2020 2(Costa et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100254Over the northeast region of Brazil for the period of 1961-2014...in most weather stations where there is a significant increase in consecutive dry days, there is also a trend of significant increase in consecutive wet days, thereby intensifying the seasonality, with the dry seasons becoming drier and the rainy seasons wetter.
Warming Europe Drought2019 5(Manning et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab23bf[In Europe] during the summer months of June, July and August...over the historical period 1950-2013...we find an increased probability of dry and hot events throughout Europe where rising temperatures are found to be the main driver of this change...the results point to a predominant thermodynamic response of dry and hot events to global warming and reaffirm previous research that soil moisture drought events are setting in faster and becoming more severe.
Anthropogenic China Drought2017 24(Chen and Sun, 2017)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.044Drought occurrences across China increased consistently during 1951-2014, especially during the recent twenty years...external natural forcings were mainly responsible for the variability of droughts and anthropogenic influences for their increasing trends, suggesting that anthropogenic warming has increased hot drought occurrences, associated risks and impacts across China.
Temporal United States Hurricanes2010 75(Kunkel et al., 2010)https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045164Precipitation time series for 935 long?term U.S. climate stations were analyzed to identify daily extreme events associated with tropical cyclones...during 1994-2008, the number of TC?associated events was more than double the long?term average while the total annual national number of events was about 25% above the long?term (1895-2008) average.
Anthropogenic Global Extreme Precipitation2013 100(Zhang et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.51010This study provides estimates of the human contribution to the observed widespread intensification of precipitation extremes...over the Northern Hemisphere land area for 1951-2005...the effect of anthropogenic forcings can be detected in extreme precipitation observations. We estimate that human influence has intensified annual maximum 1 day precipitation in sampled Northern Hemisphere locations by 3.3%.
Temporal Spain Drought2014 5(Andrade & Belo?Pereira, 2014)https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.542In western and central regions of [Iberian Peninsula]...an increase in the drought frequency since the 1980s is found during the months of winter and spring. These outcomes are consistent with the downward precipitation trends detected for these seasons in several studies.
Warming Canada Fires2006 243(Kasischke & Turetsky, 2006)https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025677Since the early 1960s, increases in the number of individual fire events and in the size of fires both contributed to more frequent occurrence of large fire years across the NABR...these observations are consistent with predictions that climate warming will result in longer fire seasons.
Warming Global Fisheries2020 457Top (Boyce, Lewis and Worm, 2010)https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09268Phytoplankton account for approximately half the production of organic matter on Earth. We observe declines in eight out of ten ocean regions, and estimate a global rate of decline of ?1% of the global median per year...long-term declining trends are related to increasing sea surface temperatures.
Warming China Groundwater2007 239(Cheng & Wu, 2007)https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000631Numerous studies have reported permafrost degradation under climate warming in the 20th century in the Northern Hemisphere...long?term temperature measurements indicate that the lower altitudinal limit of permafrost has moved up by 25 m in the north during the last 30 years...permafrost degradation is one of the main causes responsible for a dropping groundwater table at the source areas of the Yangtze River and Yellow River, which in turn results in lowering lake water levels, drying swamps and shrinking grasslands.
Warming China Floods2007 98(Jiang, Su and Hartmann, 2007)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.03.01...The suspected impact of climate warming on precipitation distribution is examined in the Yangtze River Basin. Daily precipitation data for 147 meteorological stations from 1961-2000 and monthly discharge data for three stations in the basin have been analyzed...the rainstorms have aggravated floods in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin in recent decades. The observed trends in precipitation and rainstorms are possibly caused by variations of atmospheric circulation (weakened summer monsoon) under climate warming.
Warming Lake Tanganyika Fisheries2007 278(O?Reilly et al., 2003)https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01833Here we present evidence that climate warming is diminishing productivity in Lake Tanganyika, East Africa. In parallel with regional warming patterns since the beginning of the twentieth century...primary productivity may have decreased by about 20%, implying a roughly 30% decrease in fish yields.
Warming Global Hurricanes2020 3(Kossin et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920849117Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979-2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities ... Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade
Anthropogenic United States Reduced Streamflow2020 1(Overpeck & Udall, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006323117In the American Southwest, where declining flows in the region?s two most important rivers, the Colorado (Fig. 1) and Rio Grande, have been attributed in part to increasing temperatures caused by human activities...warming is also causing flow declines in the northern Rocky Mountains and in the largest river basin in the United States, the Missouri
Temporal Bangladesh Extreme Precipitation2010 86(Shahid, 2010)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0363-yA study of the variability of the extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh during the time period 1958?2007 has been carried out in this paper...in general, an increasing trend in heavy precipitation days and decreasing trends in consecutive dry days are observed.
Warming Global Heat Waves2020 1(Raymond et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838A comprehensive evaluation of weather station data shows that some coastal subtropical locations have already reported a TW of 35 C and that extreme humid heat overall has more than doubled in frequency since 1979
Warming North Sea Fisheries2005 1237Top (Perry et al., 2005)https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1111322We show that the distributions of both exploited and nonexploited North Sea fishes have responded markedly to recent increases in sea temperature, with nearly two-thirds of species shifting in mean latitude or depth or both over 25 years...species with shifting distributions have faster life cycles and smaller body sizes than nonshifting species
Anthropogenic Chile Drought2015 75(Boisier et al., 2015)https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067265A precipitation decline, of consistent direction but of larger amplitude than obtained in simulations with historical climate forcing, has been observed in central Chile since the late 1970s...unlikely to be driven exclusively by natural phenomena but rather consistent with the simulated regional effect of anthropogenic climate change.
Temporal Africa Crops2014 28(Shi and Tao, 2014)https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-014-0370-4Databases of maize yields and climate variables in the maize growing seasons were used to assess the vulnerability of African maize yields to climate change and variability with different levels of management at country scale between 1961 and 2010...the negative impacts of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation and SPEI on maize yields progressively increased at the whole continent scale over the time period studied.
Temporal Iran Drought2014 56(Golian et al., 2014)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1139-6From 1980 to 2013...the Mann-Kendall trend test shows that the northern, northwestern, and central parts of Iran have experienced significant drying trends at a 95 % confidence level.
Anthropogenic Syria Drought2012 253(Hoerling et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1A change in wintertime Mediterranean precipitation toward drier conditions has likely occurred over 1902-2010 whose magnitude cannot be reconciled with internal variability alone. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are key attributable factors for this increased drying.
Temporal United States Heat Waves1998 87(Gaffen & Ross, 1998)https://doi.org/10.1038/25030Here we show that the frequency of extreme heat-stress events in the United States, caused by extremely hot and humid days as well as by heatwaves lasting for several days, has increased over the period from 1949 to 1995.
Warming Global Heat Waves2017 124(Diffenbaugh et al., 2017)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618082114We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area...79% of the observed area exhibits a statistically significant trend in peak summer monthly temperature.
Anthropogenic Global Heat Waves2016 27(Knutson & Ploshay, 2016)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1708-zAs a heat stress metric we use a simplified wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index...our analysis suggests that there has been a detectable anthropogenic increase in mean summertime heat stress since 1973, both globally and in most land regions analyzed.
Temporal United States Heat Waves2012 91(Smith et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0659-2For the period 1979?2011 across the Continental United States...positive trends (increases in number of heat wave days per year) were greatest in the Southeast and Great Plains regions, where more than 12% of the land area experienced significant increases in the number of heat wave days per year for the majority of heat wave indices.
Temporal Australia Fires2012 48(Clarke et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3480A data set of observed fire weather in Australia from 1973?2010 is analysed for trends using the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI)...the multi?station mean shows that on average across Australia, there has been an increase in annual cumulative FFDI since 1973 of 212 points per decade.
Anthropogenic Australia Drought2014 67(Delworth & Zeng, 2014)https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2201Precipitation in austral autumn and winter has declined over parts of southern and especially southwestern Australia in the past few decades...in our simulations, many aspects of the observed regional rainfall decline over southern and southwest Australia are reproduced in response to anthropogenic changes in levels of greenhouse gases and ozone in the atmosphere
Anthropogenic Global Hurricanes2019 25(Knutson et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1The balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to...increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s, increase in global proportion of TCs reaching category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades.
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2019 7(Paerl et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46928-9Examination of continuous rainfall records for coastal NC since 1898 reveals a period of unprecedentedly high precipitation since the late-1990's, and a trend toward increasingly high precipitation associated with tropical cyclones over the last 120 years.
Temporal China Extreme Precipitation2011 13(Liu et al., 2011)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2089In China over the period of 1960-2000...there has been an increasing trend in the frequency of precipitation exceeding the long?term mean 97.5th percentile and 99th percentile values.
Warming Global Extreme Precipitation2016 261(Donat et al., 2016)https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2941Here we investigate changes in these two aspects in the world?s dry and wet regions using observations and global climate models...extreme daily precipitation averaged over both dry and wet regimes shows robust increases...this intensification has implications for the risk of flooding as the climate warms, particularly for the world?s dry regions.
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2015 24(Guilbert et al., 2015)https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063124Meteorological data from 222 stations in 10 northeastern states are analyzed...with record lengths varying between 51 and 174?years...the study region is experiencing an increase in the magnitude of high?intensity precipitation events.
Temporal United States Extreme Precipitation2013 236(Kunkel et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1The total amount of precipitation accumulated on days when precipitation exceeds the 99th percentile for daily amounts, indicates a highly statistically significant upward trend for the period of 1957-2010 for the same set of regions (Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast) and the United States as a whole.
Temporal Korea Extreme Precipitation2011 58(Jung et al., 2011)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2068The spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Korea were investigated using 183 weather station data for 1973-2005...the increase of annual precipitation is mainly associated with the increase of frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation during summer season...this variation of precipitation is likely to increase flood and drought risk.
Warming Global Hurricanes2016 7(Xu et al., 2016)https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0164.1An empirical relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the maximum potential intensification rate (MPIR) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic has been developed based on the best-track TC data and the observed SST during 1988-2014...results from this study show a nonlinear increasing trend of the MPIR with increasing SST.
Warming United States Hurricanes2015 38(Estrada et al., 2015)https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2560Based on records of geophysical data, we identify an upward trend in both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin as well as in the number of loss-generating tropical cyclone records in the United States that is consistent with the smoothed global average rise in surface air temperature...we identify an upward trend in economic losses between 1900 and 2005 that cannot be explained by commonly used socioeconomic variables.
Warming Global Hurricanes2015 4(Fraza & Elsner, 2015)https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2015.1066146The climatic influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on intensification is examined for North Atlantic hurricanes by averaging hourly intensity increases from best-track data over the period 1986-2013...on average, mean intensification increases by 16% [(9, 20)% uncertainty interval] for every 1 C increase in mean SST.
Temporal Global Hurricanes2013 100(Kossin et al., 2013)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00262.1To create a more temporally consistent record of tropical cyclone intensity within the period 1982-2009...global trends deduced using quantile regression are shown. In the best track, the trend in the mean lifetime maximum intensity is about +2 m s?1 decade?1 and is statistically significant.
Warming Global Hurricanes2015 37(Kang & Elsner, 2015)https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2646We calculate an average increase in global tropical cyclone intensity of 1.3 m s-1?over the past 30 years of ocean warming occurring at the expense of 6.1 tropical cyclones?worldwide.
Warming Global Hurricanes2012 11(Kishtawal et al., 2012)https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051700Over all the basins, the rate of Tropical Cyclone intensification from 64 kt to first peak of intensity maxima (global average value = 104 kt) was found to be positive...the trends indicate that the TCs now intensify from 64 kt to 104 kt nearly 9 hours earlier than they did 25 years back...increasing TC intensification may partly be attributed to the rate of ocean warming at different basins.
Warming Pacific Ocean Hurricanes2016 97(Mei & Xie, 2016)https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2792Over the past 37 years, typhoons that strike East and Southeast Asia have intensified by 12-15%, with the proportion of storms of categories 4 and 5 having doubled or even tripled...we find that the increased intensity of landfalling typhoons is due to strengthened intensification rates, which in turn are tied to locally enhanced ocean surface warming on the rim of East and Southeast Asia.
Temporal Pacific Ocean Hurricanes2012 19(Kang & Elsner, 2012)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00735.1The consensus of TC trends between the two agencies over the period is interpreted as fewer but stronger events since 1984, even with the lower power dissipation index (PDI) in the western North Pacific in recent years.
Warming United States Floods2015 125(Mallakpour?& Villarini, 2015)https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2516Here, we show that while observational records (774 stream gauge stations) from the central United States present limited evidence of significant changes in the magnitude of floodpeaks, strong evidence points to an increasing frequency of flooding. These changes in flood hydrology result from changes in both seasonal rainfall and temperature across this region.
Warming United States Reduced Streamflow2009 134(Luce & Holden, 2009)https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039407The changing climate and water cycle of the Western U.S. are impacting water resources...the driest 25% of years are getting drier across the majority of the Pacific Northwest. The change is substantial, with most streams showing decreases exceeding 29% and some showing decreases approaching 50% between 1948 and 2006.
Warming Global Extreme Precipitation2008 17(Trenberth, 2008)https://doi.org/10.1002/0470848944.hsa211There is a direct influence of global warming on changes in precipitation and heavy rains...globally averaged over the land area with sufficient data, the percentage contribution to total annual precipitation from very wet days (upper 5%) has increased in the past 50 years.
Warming Global Hurricanes2010 153(Menendez & Woodworth, 2010)https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005997Mean sea level (MSL) has generally increased worldwide during the 20th century due to the thermal expansion of sea water, the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, and the hydrological exchanges between the land and the ocean...there has indeed been an increase in extreme high water levels worldwide since 1970...results show that the MSL rise is the major reason for the rise in extreme high water at most stations.
Temporal United States Tornadoes2016 28(Tippett et al., 2016)https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah7393Using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks...the estimated number of tornadoes in the 5-year most extreme outbreak roughly doubles from 40 in 1965 to nearly 80 in 2015.
Temporal Turkey Heat Waves2010 137(Kuglitsch et al., 2010)https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041841Since the 1960s, the mean heat wave intensity, heat wave length and heat wave number across the eastern Mediterranean region have increased by a factor of 7.6 +/- 1.3, 7.5 +/- 1.3 and 6.2 +/- 1.1, respectively.
Temporal France Heat Waves2007 230(Della-Marta, 2007)https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008510Over the period 1880 to 2005 the length of summer heat waves over Western Europe has doubled and the frequency of hot days has almost tripled
Temporal Global Extreme Precipitation2019 11(Donat et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1c8eWe use the globally most complete observational datasets that allow analysis of daily-scale precipitation extremes over the recent 60 year period 1951 to 2010...observations indicate increases in both total and extreme precipitation in the humid regions over the past 60 years...this study confirms that precipitation extremes are increasing in most land regions.
Warming Global Extreme Precipitation2016 15(Ingram, 2016)https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2966Intense precipitation has increased across both the wetter and the drier parts of the continents, and will continue to do so as global warming continues.
Temporal Norway Drought2010 110(Wilson et al., 2010)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.09.010For three periods: 1920-2005, 1941-2005 and 1961-2000...a signal towards earlier snowmelt floods was clear, as was the tendency towards more severe summer droughts in southern and eastern Norway.
Warming Canada Lightning2017 68(Veraverbeke et al., 2017)https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3329We find that lightning ignitions have increased since 1975...lightning ignition explained more than 55% of the interannual variability in burned area, and was correlated with temperature and precipitation
Warming United States Hurricanes20190(Grinsted et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912277116Our data reveal an emergent positive trend in damage, which we attribute to a detectable change in extreme storms due to global warming
Anthropogenic Mongolia Reduced Streamflow20190(Zorigt et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01564-xMonthly and maximum runoff, precipitation, and air temperature data from 12 gauging stations collected between 1978 and 2015 were analyzed to characterize the hydrological regime response to climate change...river runoff in the Mongolian part of the Selenge basin has decreased from the first interval (1978-1995) of our study period compared with the consecutive interval from 1996 to 2015
Warming Australia Drought20190(Lin et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0686.1Rainfall in southeastern Australia (SEA) decreased substantially in the austral autumn (March-April-May) of the 1990s and 2000s...this study highlights the role of sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the subtropical South Pacific (SSP) in the autumn rainfall reduction in SEA since the early 1990s.
Anthropogenic India Heat Waves20190(Vittal et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05093-5Summer heat waves over India have been increasing in frequency and severity during recent decades, and are responsible for thousands of deaths...The conditions in the Atlantic that drove these heat waves were exacerbated by greenhouse gas emissions rather than natural forcing.
Temporal China Apparent Temperature20190(Li et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2019-010This paper demonstrates that the [apparent temperature] over China, as revealed by daily station- observed data, has generally increased faster than the [surface air temperature] during summertime in the past 50 years (1968-2017).
Temporal Africa (Sub-Saharan) Malaria20190(Carlson et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1101/673913We test for range shifts using a new comprehensive dataset of Anopheles occurrences in sub-Saharan Africa, with over 500,000 species-locality pair records spanning 1898 to 2016...We estimate range-shifting species gained 1.56 meters of elevation annually, and moved southward 6.28 km per year in their outer range limits, a full order of magnitude faster than some "rapid" shifts observed in the literature.
Anthropogenic China Heat Waves20200(Li et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0492.1We show that summer mean WBGT has increased almost everywhere across China since 1961 due to human-induced climate change. Consequently, hot summers as measured by summer mean WBGT are becoming more frequent and more conducive to heat stress...these hot WBGT summers have become more than 140 times as likely in Eastern China in the present decade 2010s compared to a 1961-1990 baseline period.
Temporal Africa (Sub-Saharan) Malaria20190(Carlson et al., 2019)https://doi.org/10.1101/673913We test for range shifts using a new comprehensive dataset of Anopheles occurrences in sub-Saharan Africa, with over 500,000 species-locality pair records spanning 1898 to 2016...we estimate range-shifting species gained 1.56 meters of elevation annually, and moved southward 6.28 km per year in their outer range limits, a full order of magnitude faster than some 'rapid' shifts observed in the literature.
Warming Baja California Drought20200(Guerrero and Kretzschmar, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100653We detected an abrupt downward change in annual precipitation in 1998, and a continuous period of reduction in precipitation rate from 1999 to 2016 (at least 17 years)...and an increase in dry seasonal/annual periods after 1998...also, we detected an upward change in maximum temperature...and an increase in dry seasonal/annual periods after 1998...the decrease of precipitation and increase in temperature have had negative impacts on groundwater availability that have affected agriculture and population.
Temporal China Drought20200(Li et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00727-4Drought is one of the major natural disasters in northern China...in the Inner Mongolian Plateau from 1962 to 2017...the degree of drought in the study area has increased.
Temporal China Drought20200(Han et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6527In China from 1950 to 2009...the annual and seasonal drought intensities have increased slightly in the past 60 years, while the disturbed area has broadened significantly, especially in eastern China which has become much drier than before.
Warming Global Drought20200(Zhang et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6555During 1980-2010, due to significant global warming (0.30 C decade -1) the global mean occurrence frequency of [short-term concurrent hot and dry extreme events] has a slightly increasing trend (0.34% decade -1)
Warming China Crops20200(Bai & Xiao, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03182-8Based on the observed data from 51 agro-meteorological stations across China during 1981-2010...the results indicated that climate change during the past three decades had a negative impact on rice growth and development.
Temporal Israel Extreme Precipitation20200(Ajjur and Riffi, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6576Based on the daily precipitation observations of eight meteorological stations over Gaza Strip, from 1974 to 2016, the trends of 11 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were estimated...the results show that, on average, most of the indices exhibited increasing trends during 1974-2016.
Temporal United States Heat Waves20200(Keelings and Moradkhani, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087097Aross the United States during 1981-2018... the spatiotemporal evolution of combined heat wave characteristics shows considerable increases during this period and indicates a substantial increase in heat wave hazard across the United States...extreme heat events have become more likely through the record as evidenced by the statistically significant (at the 0.05 significance level) upward trend in AHSCI (9.5 decade -1) for the continental United States.
Temporal China Heat Waves20200(Luo et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.10500...Using observational and reanalysis datasets, here we investigate the heatwave behaviors in arid northwest China (ANC) during 1961?2014...over the long-term period, the heatwave in ANC exhibits significant intensifying trends in terms of increasing frequency (0.40 events decade?1), prolonging duration (1.67 days decade?1), and strengthening amplitude (0.32 C decade?1)
Warming United States Reduced Streamflow20200(Martin et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916208117We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the [Upper Missouri River Basin] since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries.
Warming Global Hurricanes20200(Elsner, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0338.1The strongest tropical cyclones have continued to get stronger...Here I show that this is the case with increases in the upper quantile intensities of global tropical cyclones amounting to between 3.5 and 4.5% in the period 2007-2019 relative to the earlier base period (1981-2006)
Warming Global Heat Waves20200(Li et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d04The historical ~1 C of global-mean surface air temperature increase above preindustrial levels has already increased the population annually exposed to at least one day with wet bulb globe temperature exceeding 33 C (the reference safety value for humans at rest per the ISO-7243 standard) from 97 million to 275 million.
Warming Montenegro Drought20200(Buric & Doderovic, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6671For the period 1951?2018...Podgorica's climate has become more arid and extreme, as the number of days with precipitation >=?1?mm (R1) has significantly decreased.
Anthropogenic Global Extreme Precipitation20200(Paik et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086875During 1951-2015...anthropogenic greenhouse gas influence is robustly detected in the observed intensification of extreme precipitation over the global land and most of the sub?regions considered
Anthropogenic North America Extreme Precipitation20200(Kirchmeier-Young & Zhang, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1921628117External forcing, dominated by human influence, has contributed to the increase in frequency and intensity of regional precipitation extremes in North America
Temporal Iran Heat Waves20200(Fathian et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03269-2Daily temperature and precipitation data of 76 synoptic stations were selected for trend analysis throughout Iran during the period 1981-2010...the results of 11 extreme temperature-related indices showed, in general, warm indices such as the number of warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p), and warm spell duration (WSDI) had an increasing trend
Warming United States Fires20200(Goss et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7We show that state-wide increases in autumn temperature (~1 ?C) and decreases in autumn precipitation (~30%) over the past four decades have contributed to increases in aggregate fire weather indices (+20%). As a result, the observed frequency of autumn days with extreme (95th percentile) fire weather ? which we show are preferentially associated with extreme autumn wildfires ? has more than doubled in California since the early 1980s.?
Warming Europe (Central) Extreme Precipitation20200(Zeder & Fischer, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100266Maxima of long-term (1901-2013) daily precipitation records from a densely sampled Central European station network, spanning Austria, Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands, are scaled with Northern Hemispheric and regional temperature anomalies...across Central Europe, an overall intensification and a positive scaling signal with Northern Hemispheric temperature is detected in annual, summer, and winter single-day to monthly maximum precipitation.
Warming United States Crops20200(Eck et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.1080...In the southeastern United States...detrended county-level yield data (1981-2018) were analyzed...surface crops in the region suffer considerable declines as a result of higher than normal maximum temperatures during the growing season...although drought conditions result in negative departures from expected yield, the findings of this study highlight that excess moisture in the latter part of the growing season (Sep-Oct) can be equally damaging.
Warming China Heat Waves20200(Xie et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03285-2Since the 1960s, the frequencies of the mild, moderate, severe, and extreme heat waves in China have increased significantly with rates of 7.5, 4.3, 1.4, and 1.8 events per year, respectively.
Temporal Iran Extreme Precipitation20200(Mahbod and Rafiee, 2020)https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6708The spatial and temporal changes of very wet days across Iran was assessed, 1985?2013...RS95 (RS95gm) results showed a higher frequency of extreme events across Iran.
Warming China Heat Waves20200(Deng et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8335Southwestern China (SWC) has suffered from increasing frequency of heat wave (HW) in recent summers...based on ERA-5 reanalysis, it is found that the SWC summer HWs are significantly correlated with sea-ice losses in the Barents Sea, Kara Sea and the Arctic pole.
Warming Iraq Fires20200(Rasul et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00842-7From 2001 to 2019...the trend of burned areas in Iraq was an increase of 71.7 km2 per year...high maximum air temperature and wind speed are the main factors that contribute to increasing burned areas
Warming Brazil Drought20200(Morales et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002411117The South American Drought Atlas shows that the frequency of widespread severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the 1960s is unprecedented.
Warming Oman Drought20200(Kenawy et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.10512...Spatial and temporal variability of drought in Oman was assessed for the period 1979-2014...results suggest a statistically significant increase in the frequency and severity of drought during the past four decades...the significant temperature rise in recent decades, combined with a significant decline of rainfall and relative humidity, can explain the prolonged drought episode lasting from 1998 to 2014.
Temporal India Flooding20200(Chug et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087815At multiple locations across Western Himalayan (WH) rivers...we find that the frequency of extreme flow events during the period 1980?2003 has doubled with a statistically significant increasing trend in annual maximum streamflow. We postulate that this streamflow change is due to the increased precipitation extremes.
Anthropogenic Australia Coastal Inundation20200(Hague et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001607Using a large coastal city as an example, we show that in Sydney, Australia, frequencies of minor coastal inundation have increased from 1.6 to 7.8 days per year between 1914 and present day. We attribute over 80% of the observed coastal inundation events between 1970 and 2015 to the predominantly anthropogenic increases in global mean sea level.
Temporal China Extreme Precipitation20200(Jian et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67429-0Hourly extreme precipitation have significantly increased in 1961-2012...the frequency and proportion of extreme precipitation were significantly increased by 2.0-4.7% and 2.3-2.9% per decade, respectively, mainly in south China and Yangtze River Basin.
Anthropogenic United States Fires20200(Goss et al., 2020)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7State-wide increases in autumn temperature (~1 C) and decreases in autumn precipitation (~30%) over the past four decades have contributed to increases in aggregate fire weather indices (+20%). As a result, the observed frequency of autumn days with extreme (95th percentile) fire weather...has more than doubled in California since the early 1980s...this analysis offers strong evidence for a human fingerprint on the observed increase in meteorological preconditions necessary for extreme wildfires in California.

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